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Collateral damage: effects of the Japanese real estate collapse on credit availability and real activity in the United States

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  • Joe Peek
  • Eric Rosengren
Abstract
The dramatic 70 percent decline in Japanese commercial real estate prices from their peak in 1990 provides a natural experiment to test the extent to which a loan supply shock can affect real economic activity. Because the shock was external to U.S. credit markets, yet connected through the substantial penetration of U.S. lending markets by Japanese banks, this event allows us to identify an exogenous loan supply shock and ultimately link that shock to construction activity in major commercial real estate markets in the United States. We use panel data that exploit the variation across geographically distinct commercial real estate markets in the United States, both in degree of Japanese bank penetration and in local demand conditions, to establish conclusively that loan supply shocks emanating from loan problems in Japan had real effects on economic activity in the United States. Revised 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 1997. "Collateral damage: effects of the Japanese real estate collapse on credit availability and real activity in the United States," Working Papers 97-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:97-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Simona Mateut, 2005. "Trade Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 655-670, September.
    4. Theodore M. Barnhill & Panagiotis Papapanagiotou & Marcos Rietti Souto, 2004. "Preemptive Strategies for the Assessment and Management of Financial System Risk Levels: An Application to Japan with Implications for Emerging Economies," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-42.
    5. Philip Lowe & Miguel Angel Segoviano, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle, and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 129-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hancock, Diana & Wilcox, James A., 1998. "The "credit crunch" and the availability of credit to small business," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 983-1014, August.
    8. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Lowe, Philip, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24948, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Florence Béranger & Jérôme Teïletche, 2003. "Bâle II et la procyclicité," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(4), pages 227-250.
    10. Hesna Genay, 1998. "Assessing the condition of Japanese banks: how informative are accounting earnings?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 22(Q IV), pages 12-34.
    11. Colin Lizieri & Andrew Baum & Peter Scott, 2000. "Ownership, Occupation and Risk: A View of the City of London Office Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(7), pages 1109-1129, June.
    12. Lynn E. Browne & Rebecca Hellerstein & Jane Sneddon Little, 1998. "Inflation, asset markets, and economic stabilization: lessons from Asia," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-32.
    13. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai Bergman & Amit Seru, 2021. "Financing Labor [Corporate debt maturity and the real effects of the 2007 credit crisis]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1365-1393.
    14. Philip Lowe & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," BIS Working Papers 117, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Caprio Jr., Gerard, 1998. "Banking on crises : expensive lessons from recent financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1979, The World Bank.

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