[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/98-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model

Author

Listed:
  • Marco A. Espinosa-Vega
  • Steven Russell
Abstract
In this paper we integrate Diamond's (1965) model of neoclassical production and capital with Wallace's (1984) model of monetary policy in order to study the real effects of two types of monetary policy actions: open market operations and changes in reserve requirements. We show that a permanent easing of open market or reserve policy can produce permanent increases in both the inflation rate and the level (but not the growth rate) of output. We also describe conditions under which the effects of these policies on real interest rates and output can be large relative to their effects on the rate of inflation. When we compare the effects of the two types of policies we find that open market operations are the policy tool that minimizes the change in the inflation rate necessary to achieve a given change in the level of output.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1998. "The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:98-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/1998/wp9806.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some of the choices for monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Win).
    2. David Romer, 1986. "A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 663-685.
    3. Hahn, Frank, 1990. "On Inflation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 15-25, Winter.
    4. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. James B. Bullard & Steven Russell, 2004. "How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(May), pages 35-68.
    6. Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1996. "Long-term evidence on the Tobin and Fisher effects: a new approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 566, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
    8. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    9. Joydeep Bhattacharya & Mark G. Guzman & Elisabeth Huybens & Bruce D. Smith, 1995. "Monetary, Fiscal, and Bank Regulatory Policy in a Simple Monetary Growth Model," Working Papers 9501, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    10. Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261, Elsevier.
    11. Michael R. Darby, 1984. "Some pleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Spr).
    12. Bruce Smith, 1984. "Money and inflation in colonial Massachusetts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Win).
    13. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    14. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-415, June.
    15. Bhattacharya, Joydeep, et al, 1997. "Monetary, Fiscal, and Reserve Requirement Policy in a Simple Monetary Growth Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 321-350, May.
    16. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
    17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1984. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 283-311, May.
    18. John H. Boyd & Ross Levine & Bruce Smith, 1996. "Inflation and financial market performance," Working Papers (Old Series) 9617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    19. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
    20. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
    21. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-674, November.
    22. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Smith, Lance, 1987. "On the superneutrality of money in a stochastic dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 475-499, December.
    23. Bullard, James & Russell, Steven, 1999. "An empirically plausible model of low real interest rates and unbacked government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 477-508, December.
    24. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce D, 1996. "Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 309-332, September.
    25. Miller, Preston J. & Todd, Richard M., 1995. "Real effects of monetary policy in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 125-153.
    26. Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(6), pages 796-796.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    28. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    29. Preston J. Miller & Thomas J. Sargent, 1984. "A reply to Darby," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Spr).
    30. Kandel, Shmuel & Ofer, Aharon R & Sarig, Oded, 1996. "Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 205-225, March.
    31. Thomas M. Supel & Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Should currency be priced like cars?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Spr).
    32. Marco Espinosa & Steven Russell, 1998. "Can a Policy of Higher Inflation Reduce Real Interests in the Long Run?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 92-103, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    2. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Monique Reid & Christian Tipoy & Mulatu Zerihun, 2014. "Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: evidence and implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 41-62, February.
    3. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Leopold von Thadden, 2004. "Active monetary policy, passive fiscal policy and the value of pure debt: some further monetarist arithmetic," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 108, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. McAndrews, James & Roberds, William, 1999. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Check Float," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 353-377, October.
    6. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 2001. "Stability of steady states in a model of pleasant monetarist arithmetic," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Franz R. Hahn & Peter Mooslechner, 1999. "Zur Fundierung des Designs des Europäischen Zentralbanksystems," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 72(1), pages 49-60, January.
    8. Cothren, Richard, 2006. "A model of optimal legal restrictions and open market operations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 480-492, September.
    9. Robert Hiscock & Jagdish Handa, 2013. "Long-run neutrality and superneutrality of money in South American economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 739-747, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James B. Bullard & Steven Russell, 1998. "Monetary steady states in a low real interest rate economy," Working Papers 1994-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 2001. "Stability of steady states in a model of pleasant monetarist arithmetic," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Bullard, James & Russell, Steven, 1999. "An empirically plausible model of low real interest rates and unbacked government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 477-508, December.
    4. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Haslag, Joseph & Russell, Steven, 2005. "The role of money in two alternative models: When is the Friedman rule optimal, and why?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1401-1433, November.
    5. James B. Bullard & John W. Keating, 1994. "Superneutrality in postwar economies," Working Papers 1994-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Maxim Nikitin & Steven Russell, 2006. "Monetary policy arithmetic: reconciling theory with evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 348-374, February.
    8. Beatrix Paal & Bruce D. Smith, 2013. "The sub-optimality of the Friedman rule and the optimum quantity of money," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 911-948, November.
    9. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    10. Ooft, Gavin, 2016. "Inflation and Economic Activity in Suriname," EconStor Preprints 215533, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December.
    12. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1997. "History and theory of the NAIRU: a critical review," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 2), pages 4-25.
    13. Joydeep Bhattacharya & Joseph H. Haslag, 1999. "Monetary policy arithmetic: some recent contributions," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 26-36.
    14. TINA M. Edgar A. Ghossoub & TINA M. Robert R. Reedy, 2012. "Financial Development and the Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Do the distributional consequences of monetary policy depend on the extent of financial development? Should optimal monetary pol," Working Papers 0035, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    15. Barnett, Richard C., 2005. "Coordinating macroeconomic policy in a simple AK growth model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 621-647, December.
    16. Hung, Fu-Sheng, 2003. "Inflation, financial development, and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 45-67.
    17. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1990. "The inflationary effects of the use of reserve ratio reductions, or open market purchases, to reduce market interest rates: a theoretical comparison," Working Papers 1990-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Edgar A. Ghossoub & Robert R. Reed, 2013. "The Stock Market, Monetary Policy, and Economic Development," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(3), pages 639-658, January.
    19. Edgar A. Ghossoub, 2015. "Inflation Thresholds and the Efficiency of the Banking Sector," Working Papers 0159eco, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    20. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2001. "Volatile Policy and Private Information: The Case of Monetary Shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 265-296, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keynesian economics; Monetary policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:98-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rob Sarwark (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.