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Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination

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Abstract
This paper analyzes how the formation of expectations constrains monetary and fiscal policy design. Economic agents have imperfect knowledge about the economic environment and the policy regime in place. Households and firms learn about the policy regime using historical data. Regime uncertainty substantially narrows, relative to a rational expectations analysis of the model, the menu of policies consistent with expectations stabilization. When agents are learning about the policy regime, there is greater need for policy coordination: the specific choice of monetary policy limits the set of fiscal policies consistent with macroeconomic stability - and simple Taylor-type rules frequently lead to expectations-driven instability. In contrast, non-Ricardian fiscal policies combined with an interest rate peg promote stability. Resolving uncertainty about the prevailing monetary policy regime improves stabilization policy, enlarging the menu of policy options consistent with stability. However, there are limits to the benefits of communicating the monetary policy regime: the more heavily indebted the economy, the greater is the likelihood of expectations-driven instability. More generally, regardless of agents' knowledge of the policy regime, when expectations are anchored in the long term, short-term dynamics display greater volatility than under rational expectations.

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  • Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination," Staff Reports 343, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:343
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    Cited by:

    1. Emad Omar Elhendawy, 2019. "Coordination or Dominance of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Egypt," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 1-28, December.
    2. Cavalli, Fausto & Naimzada, Ahmad K. & Pecora, Nicolò, 2019. "Complex interplay between monetary and fiscal policies in a real economy model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 318-330.
    3. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Geert Langenus & Amela Hubic & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUL, pages 123-144, July.
    4. Andrew HUGHES HALLETT & Jan LIBICH & Petr STEHLÍK, 2014. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction with Various Degrees of Commitment," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(1), pages 2-29, February.
    5. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.
    6. Christopher A. Sims, 2013. "Comment on "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 59-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fernando M. Duarte & Anna Zabai, 2015. "An interest rate rule to uniquely implement the optimal equilibrium in a liquidity trap," Staff Reports 745, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational expectations (Economic theory); Economic stabilization; Fiscal policy; Taylor's rule; Monetary policy; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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