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Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Jongrim Ha

    (World Bank, Prospects Group)

  • M. Ayhan Kose

    (World Bank, Prospects Group
    Brookings Institution
    CEPR
    CAMA)

  • Franziska Ohnsorge

    (World Bank, Prospects Group
    CEPR
    CAMA)

  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

    (Department of Economics, Florida International University)

Abstract
This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over the 1970-2022 period. We estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. We report three main results. First, global shocks have explained about 26 percent of inflation variation in a typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically significant impact on inflation in three quarters of countries. Second, global shocks have become more important in driving inflation variation over time. The share of inflation variance caused by oil price shocks increased from 4 percent prior to 2000 to roughly 9 percent over the 2001-2022 period. They also accounted for some of the steep runup in inflation between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Finally, oil price shocks tended to contribute significantly more to inflation variation in advanced economies; countries with stronger global trade and financial linkages; commodity importers; net energy importers; countries without inflation-targeting regimes; and countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. Our headline results are robust to a wide range of exercises - including alternative measures of global factors and oil prices - and aggregation of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?," Working Papers 2301, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2301
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristin Forbes & Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose, 2024. "Rate Cycles," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2402, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Bulat Mukhamediyev & Sayat Zhamanbayev & Aliya Mukhamediyeva, 2024. "Central Bank Independence and Oil Prices Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 9-17, May.
    3. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; oil prices; global shock; domestic shock; FAVAR; exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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