[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fgv/epgewp/770.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Author

Listed:
  • Neri, Marcelo Côrtes
  • Vaz, Fábio Monteiro
  • Souza, Pedro Herculano Guimarães Ferreira de
Abstract
Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Neri, Marcelo Côrtes & Vaz, Fábio Monteiro & Souza, Pedro Herculano Guimarães Ferreira de, 2015. "Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 770, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/4c3bfd9a-7758-45da-a55a-a04db08fb89c/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergei Soares & Rafael Guerreiro Osório & Fábio Veras Soares & Marcelo Medeiros & Eduardo Zepeda, 2009. "Conditional cash transfers in Brazil, Chile and Mexico: impacts upon inequality," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 0(Special i), pages 207-224.
    2. Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Azzoni, Carlos Roberto & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Haddad, Eduardo A. & Laes, M. A. & Moreira, Guilherme Renato Caldo, 2007. "Social policies, personal and regional income inequality in Brazil: an I-O analysis of the "Bolsa Família" program," MPRA Paper 54508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-442, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Medeiros, Marcelo & Souza, Pedro H.G.F., 2013. "The State and income inequality in Brazil," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt584222f0, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    2. Souza, Pedro H.G.F., 2013. "The Decline in Inequality In Brazil, 2003-2009: The Role Of The State," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt33q062zj, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    3. Reis, Mauricio, 2012. "Differences in nutritional outcomes between Brazilian white and black children," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 174-188.
    4. Barrientos, Armando, 2011. "On the Distributional Implications of Social Protection Reforms in Latin America," WIDER Working Paper Series 069, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    6. Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2017. "When the opportunity knocks: large structural shocks and gender wage gaps," GRAPE Working Papers 2, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    7. Zsófia L. Bárány, 2016. "The Minimum Wage and Inequality: The Effects of Education and Technology," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 237-274.
    8. Hunt, Jennifer & Laszlo, Sonia, 2005. "Bribery: Who Pays, Who Refuses, What are the Payoffs?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5251, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Richard V. Burkhauser & Shuaizhang Feng & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2009. "Using The P90/P10 Index To Measure U.S. Inequality Trends With Current Population Survey Data: A View From Inside The Census Bureau Vaults," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(1), pages 166-185, March.
    10. Tatiane Menezes & R. Silveira-Neto & Carlos Azzoni, 2012. "Demography and evolution of regional inequality," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 643-655, December.
    11. Patricia Crifo & Etienne Lehmann, 2001. "Why the Kuznets Curve Will Always Reverse," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00150324, HAL.
    12. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2010. "Comment on "Recent Trends in Compensation Inequality"," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 98-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. David Bravo & Dante Contreras & Sergio Urzúa, 2002. "Poverty and Inequality in Chile 1990-1998: Learning from Microeconomic Simulations," Working Papers wp198, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    14. Lawrence F. Katz, 1994. "Active labor market policies to expand employment and opportunity," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jan, pages 239-322.
    15. Töpfer, Marina, 2017. "Detailed RIF decomposition with selection: The gender pay gap in Italy," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 26-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    16. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, 2010. "A Quantitative Analysis of the Evolution of the US Wage Distribution, 1970–2000," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 227-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Monsueto, Sandro Eduardo & Simão, Rosycler Cristal Santos, 2008. "The impact of gender discrimination on poverty in Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    18. Gueorgui Kambourov & Iourii Manovskii, 2000. "Occupational Mobility and Wage Inequality, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-026, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 15 Jun 2004.
    19. Andrea Asoni, 2008. "Protection Of Property Rights And Growth As Political Equilibria," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 953-987, December.
    20. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara & Sandra Schaffner, 2016. "Wage Inequality and Wage Mobility in Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(1), pages 181-197, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgvfbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.