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Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

Author

Listed:
  • Heleen van Soest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands)

  • Lara Aleluia Reis

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Detlef van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands)

  • Christoph Bertram

    (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany)

  • Laurent Drouet

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Jessica Jewell

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria)

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria)

  • Massimo Tavoni

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Politecnico di Milano, Italy)

  • Michel den Elzen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands)

  • Aayushi Awasthy

    (The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India)

  • Katherine Calvin

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), United States)

  • Pantelis Capros

    (Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS), Greece)

  • Leon Clarke

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), United States)

  • Michel Colombier

    (Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), France)

  • Teng Fei

    (Tsinghua University (TU), China)

  • Amit Garg

    (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA), India)

  • Fernanda Guedes

    (The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Mariana Imperio

    (The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Mikiko Kainuma

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan)

  • Jiang Kejun

    (Energy Research Institute of NDRC (ERI), China)

  • Alexandre C. Köberle

    (The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Peter Kolp

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria)

  • Volker Krey

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria)

  • Alban Kitous

    (European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre (JRC), Spain)

  • Paroussos Leonidas

    (Energy - Economy - Environment Modelling Laboratory (E3M Lab), Greece)

  • Andre Lucena

    (The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Toshihiko Masui

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan)

  • Larissa Nogueira

    (The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Roberta Pierfederici

    (Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), France)

  • Bert Saveyn

    (European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre (JRC), Spain)

  • Roberto Schaeffer

    (The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Fu Sha

    (Renmin University and National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, China)

  • Bianka Shoai

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Japan)

  • P.R. Shukla

    (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA), India)

  • Thomas Spencer

    (Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), France)

  • Alexandre Szklo

    (The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil)

  • Henri Waisman

    (Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), France)

Abstract
Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Heleen van Soest & Lara Aleluia Reis & Detlef van Vuuren & Christoph Bertram & Laurent Drouet & Jessica Jewell & Elmar Kriegler & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Joeri Rogelj & Massimo Tavoni & Michel, 2015. "Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models," Working Papers 2015.110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2015.110
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Veysey, Jason & Octaviano, Claudia & Calvin, Katherine & Martinez, Sara Herreras & Kitous, Alban & McFarland, James & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2016. "Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 587-599.
    2. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.
    3. Roelfsema, Mark & Elzen, Michel den & Höhne, Niklas & Hof, Andries F. & Braun, Nadine & Fekete, Hanna & Böttcher, Hannes & Brandsma, Ruut & Larkin, Julia, 2014. "Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 781-796.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Sferra, Fabio & Krapp, Mario & Roming, Niklas & Schaeffer, Michiel & Malik, Aman & Hare, Bill & Brecha, Robert, 2019. "Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate policy; Mitigation; Global and national policy comparison;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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