[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2004.50.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Disease Eradication

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Hoel

    (Department of Economics, University of Oslo)

  • Scott Barrett

    (School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract
Using a dynamic model of the control of an infectious disease, we derive the conditions under which eradication will be optimal. When eradication is feasible, the optimal program requires either a low vaccination rate or eradication. A high vaccination rate is never optimal. Under special conditions, the results are especially stark: the optimal policy is either not to vaccinate at all or to eradicate. Our analysis yields a cost-benefit rule for eradication, which we apply to the current initiative to eradicate polio.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hoel & Scott Barrett, 2004. "Optimal Disease Eradication," Working Papers 2004.50, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2004.50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2004-050.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1997. "Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 222-230, March.
    2. Goldman, Steven M. & Lightwood, James, 1996. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0r88q87t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Scott Barrett, 2003. "Global Disease Eradication," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 591-600, 04/05.
    4. Mark Gersovitz & Jeffrey S. Hammer, 2004. "The Economical Control of Infectious Diseases," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 1-27, January.
    5. Goldman Steven Marc & Lightwood James, 2002. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, April.
    6. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920.
    7. Taylor, C.E. & Cutts, F. & Taylor, M.E., 1997. "Ethical dilemmas in current planning for polio eradication," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(6), pages 922-925.
    8. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1996. "Rational Epidemics and Their Public Control," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 603-624, August.
    9. Sutter, R.W. & Cochi, S.L., 1997. "Comment: ethical dilemmas in worldwide polio eradication programs," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(6), pages 913-916.
    10. Francis, Peter J., 1997. "Dynamic epidemiology and the market for vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 383-406, February.
    11. Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle, 2021. "Optimal prevention and elimination of infectious diseases," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Andrea Galeotti & Brian W. Rogers, 2013. "Strategic Immunization and Group Structure," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, May.
    3. van Ackere, Ann & Schulz, Peter J., 2020. "Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Martin F Quaas & Jasper N Meya & Hanna Schenk & Björn Bos & Moritz A Drupp & Till Requate, 2021. "The social cost of contacts: Theory and evidence for the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Eric Nævdal, 2012. "Fighting Transient Epidemics—Optimal Vaccination Schedules Before And After An Outbreak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1456-1476, December.
    6. Stéphane Mechoulan, 2007. "Market structure and communicable diseases," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 468-492, May.
    7. Alejandro Caparrós & Michael Finus, 2020. "The Corona-Pandemic: A Game-Theoretic Perspective on Regional and Global Governance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 913-927, August.
    8. Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Infection, Acquired Immunity and Externalities in Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2009. "Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 650-663, April.
    11. Martin F. Quaas & Jasper N. Meya & Hanna Schenk & Björn Bos & Moritz A. Drupp & Till Requate, 2020. "The Social Cost of Contacts: Theory and Evidence for the Covid-19 Pandemic in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8347, CESifo.
    12. Bosi, Stefano & Camacho, Carmen & Desmarchelier, David, 2021. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    14. Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2020. "Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies," PSE Working Papers halshs-02652165, HAL.
    16. Federico, Salvatore & Ferrari, Giorgio & Torrente, Maria-Laura, 2022. "Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 667, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    17. M. Ceddia, 2012. "Optimal Disease Eradication in Sympatric Metapopulations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 499-530, August.
    18. Fenichel, Eli P., 2013. "Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 440-451.
    19. Stefano Bosi & Carmen Camacho & David Desmarchelier, 2023. "On human capital accumulation in times of epidemic," PSE Working Papers halshs-04164371, HAL.
    20. repec:esx:essedp:707 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Scott Barrett, 2007. "The Smallpox Eradication Game," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 179-207, January.
    22. Sharbayta, Sileshi Sintayehu & Buonomo, Bruno & d'Onofrio, Alberto & Abdi, Tadesse, 2022. "‘Period doubling’ induced by optimal control in a behavioral SIR epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    23. repec:esx:essedp:716 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Andrew Abel & Stavros Panageas, 2024. "Are Zero-Covid Policies Optimal?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 47-70, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Recurrent Infection and Externalities in Prevention," CEPR Discussion Papers 8112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Goyal, Sanjeev & Vigier, Adrien, 2015. "Interaction, protection and epidemics," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 64-69.
    3. Stéphane Mechoulan, 2007. "Market structure and communicable diseases," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 468-492, May.
    4. Telalagic, S., 2012. "Optimal Treatment of an SIS Disease with Two Strains," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1229, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Terrence August & Tunay I. Tunca, 2006. "Network Software Security and User Incentives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(11), pages 1703-1720, November.
    7. Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Eric Nævdal, 2012. "Fighting Transient Epidemics—Optimal Vaccination Schedules Before And After An Outbreak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1456-1476, December.
    9. Sabine Liebenehm & Bernard Bett & Cristobal Verdugo & Mohamed Said, 2016. "Optimal Drug Control under Risk of Drug Resistance – The Case of African Animal Trypanosomosis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 510-533, June.
    10. Rowthorn, Robert & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2012. "The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David & O’Regan, Suzanne M., 2016. "Public control of rational and unpredictable epidemics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 161-176.
    12. Acemoglu, Daron & Malekian, Azarakhsh & Ozdaglar, Asu, 2016. "Network security and contagion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 536-585.
    13. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    14. Costello, Christopher & Quérou, Nicolas & Tomini, Agnes, 2017. "Private eradication of mobile public bads," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 23-44.
    15. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Infection, Acquired Immunity and Externalities in Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Troy Tassier & Philip Polgreen & Alberto Segre, 2015. "Vaccination Games with Peer Effects in a Heterogeneous Hospital Worker Population," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, January.
    17. Na Hao & Gervan Fearon, 2009. "Government Funding Policy Towards Communicable Diseases," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(2), pages 121-134, June.
    18. Aadland David & Finnoff David C. & Huang Kevin X.D., 2013. "Syphilis Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 297-348, June.
    19. Rikard Forslid & Mathias Herzing, 2015. "On the Optimal Production Capacity for Influenza Vaccine," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 726-741, June.
    20. repec:esx:essedp:707 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. M. Ceddia, 2012. "Optimal Disease Eradication in Sympatric Metapopulations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 499-530, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eradication of infectious diseases; Vaccination; Control theory; Cost-benefit analysis; Poliomyelitis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2004.50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.