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Loan Guarantees, Bank Lending and Credit Risk Reallocation

Author

Listed:
  • Carlo Altavilla

    (European Central Bank, CSEF and CEPR)

  • Andrew Ellul

    (Indiana University, CSEF, CEPR and ECGI)

  • Marco Pagano

    (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF, EIEF, CEPR and ECGI)

  • Andrea Polo

    (Luiss University, EIEF, CEPR and ECGI)

  • Thomas Vlassopoulos

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract
We investigate whether government credit guarantee schemes, extensively used at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, led to substitution of non-guaranteed with guaranteed credit rather than fully adding to the supply of lending. We study this issue using a unique euro-area credit register data, matched with supervisory bank data, and establish two main findings. First, guaranteed loans were mostly extended to small but comparatively creditworthy firms in sectors severely affected by the pandemic, borrowing from large, liquid and well-capitalized banks. Second, guaranteed loans partially substitute pre-existing nonguaranteed debt. For firms borrowing from multiple banks, the substitution mainly arises from the lending behavior of the bank extending guaranteed loans. Substitution was highest for funding granted to riskier and smaller firms in sectors more affected by the pandemic, and borrowing from larger and stronger banks. Overall, the evidence indicates that government guarantees contributed to the continued extension of credit to relatively creditworthy firms hit by the pandemic, but also benefited banks’ balance sheets to some extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Altavilla & Andrew Ellul & Marco Pagano & Andrea Polo & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2021. "Loan Guarantees, Bank Lending and Credit Risk Reallocation," EIEF Working Papers Series 2113, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Nov 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:2113
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    13. Elena Carletti & Tommaso Oliviero & Marco Pagano & Loriana Pelizzon & Marti G Subrahmanyam, 0. "The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-Level Evidence from Italy," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 534-568.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dautović, Ernest & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2023. "Supervisory policy stimulus: evidence from the euro area dividend recommendation," Working Paper Series 2796, European Central Bank.
    2. Acosta-Smith, Jonathan & Barunik, Jozef & Gerba, Eddie & Katsoulis, Petros, 2024. "Moderation or indulgence? Effects of bank distribution restrictions during stress," Bank of England working papers 1053, Bank of England.
    3. Carletti, Elena & Leonello, Agnese & Marquez, Robert, 2023. "Loan guarantees, bank underwriting policies and financial stability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 260-295.
    4. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Couaillier, Cyril & Lo Duca, Marco & Reghezza, Alessio & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza, 2022. "Caution: do not cross! Capital buffers and lending in Covid-19 times," Working Paper Series 2644, European Central Bank.
    6. Bonfim, Diana & Custódio, Cláudia & Raposo, Clara, 2023. "Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 658-688.
    7. Giuseppe Cascarino & Raffaele Gallo & Francesco Palazzo & Enrico Sette, 2022. "Public guarantees and credit additionality during the Covid-19 pandemic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1369, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Alberto Martin & Sergio Mayordomo & Victoria Vanasco, 2023. "Banks vs. firms: who benefits from credit guarantees?," Economics Working Papers 1862, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2023.
    9. Jiménez, Gabriel & Laeven, Luc & Martinez-Miera, David & Peydró, José-Luis, 2024. "Public guarantees, private banks’ incentives, and corporate outcomes: evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Working Paper Series 2913, European Central Bank.
    10. Kazakov, Aleksandr & Koetter, Michael & Titze, Mirko & Tonzer, Lena, 2024. "The effect of firm subsidies on credit markets," IWH Discussion Papers 24/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    11. Marco Pagano & Josef Zechner, 2022. "COVID-19 and Corporate Finance [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 849-879.
    12. Couaillier, Cyril & Reghezza, Alessio & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Scopelliti, Alessandro, 2022. "How to release capital requirements during a pandemic? Evidence from euro area banks," Working Paper Series 2720, European Central Bank.
    13. Carletti, Elena & Leonello, Agnese & Marquez, Robert, 2023. "Loan guarantees, bank underwriting policies and financial fragility," Working Paper Series 2782, European Central Bank.
    14. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Maruhn, Franziska & Begenau, Juliane, 2024. "Determinants of bank performance: evidence from replicating portfolios," Working Paper Series 2937, European Central Bank.
    15. Kazakov, Aleksandr & Koetter, Michael & Titze, Mirko & Tonzer, Lena, 2022. "Firm subsidies, financial intermediation, and bank risk," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. Aleksandr Kazakov & Michael Koetter & Mirko Titze & Lena Tonzer, 2022. "Firm subsidies, financial intermediation, and bank stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-078/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Barbiero, Francesca & Burlon, Lorenzo & Dimou, Maria & Toczynski, Jan, 2022. "Targeted monetary policy, dual rates and bank risk taking," Working Paper Series 2682, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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