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Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Liu

    (University of Bath)

  • Bruce Morley

    (University of Bath)

Abstract
The aim of this study is to determine whether the domestic interest rate or the exchange rate affect the sovereign credit default swaps. To date most studies on corporate CDS markets have emphasised the importance of domestic factors such as the interest rate. But with the sovereign CDS market, the international environment also needs to be incorporated into any analysis. Using a VAR and Granger non-causality tests, the results suggest that it is the exchange rate that has the most important effect on sovereign CDS markets, with domestic interest rates having only a marginal effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Liu & Bruce Morley, 2011. "Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and the Macroeconomy," Department of Economics Working Papers 03/11, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:eid:wpaper:24071
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skinner, Frank S. & Townend, Timothy G., 2002. "An empirical analysis of credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 297-309.
    2. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    3. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Cheng, Xiaolin & Chen, Ren-Raw, 2007. "Exploring the components of credit risk in credit default swaps," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 10-18, March.
    4. Frank Skinner & Antonio Diaz, 2002. "An Empirical Study of Credit Default Swaps," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Jan 2003.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Kargi, Bilal, 2014. "Credit Default Swap (CDS) Spreads: The Analysis of Time Series for The Integration with The Interest Rates and The Growth in Turkish Economy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 59-66.
    2. Mathias Manguzvane & Mduduzi Biyase, 2023. "Exchange rate risk and sovereign debt risk in South Africa: A Regime Dependent Approach," Economics Working Papers edwrg-04-2023, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, revised 2023.
    3. Kutuk, Yasin & Barokas, Lina, 2022. "Multivariate CDS risk premium prediction with SOTA RNNs on MI[N]T countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Ahmet Kahiloğulları, 2018. "Relationship between credit default swaps, direct foreign investments and Portfolio investments: Time Series Analysis for Turkey," Prizren Social Science Journal, SHIKS, vol. 2(3), pages 50-62, December.

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