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If we build, will they pay?: predicting property price effects of transport innovations

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  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.
Abstract
In this study I develop a partial equilibrium approach for the prediction of property price effects of transport network extensions. It combines a gravity-type labor market accessibility indicator with a transport decision model that takes into account the urban rail network architecture, allows for mode switching and relaxes the assumption that stations represent perfect substitutes. The model is calibrated to the Greater London Area and is used to predict property price effects of the 1999 Jubilee Line and DLR extension. A considerable degree of heterogeneity is predicted both in terms of the magnitude as well as the spatial extent of price effects around new stations. A quasi-experimental property price analysis reveals that the model performs well in predicting the observed average accessibility effect. Relative transport costs associated with distinct transport modes are identified from the data by calibrating the model of observed property price adjustments.

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  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M., 2011. "If we build, will they pay?: predicting property price effects of transport innovations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33595, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:33595
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    1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
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    20. Gabriel Ahlfeldt, 2011. "If Alonso Was Right: Modeling Accessibility And Explaining The Residential Land Gradient," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 318-338, May.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kholodilin, Konstantin A & Mense, Andreas & Michelsen, Claus, 2017. "The market value of energy efficiency in buildings and the mode of tenure," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(14), pages 3218-3238.
    4. Huang, Zhonghua & Du, Xuejun, 2021. "How does high-speed rail affect land value? Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Wenjie Wu, 2012. "Does Public Investment Spur the Land Market?: Evidence from Transport Improvement in Beijing," SERC Discussion Papers 0116, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Tian, Chuanhao & Peng, Ying & Wen, Haizhen & Yue, Wenze & Fang, Li, 2021. "Subway boosts housing values, for whom: A quasi-experimental analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    7. He, Sylvia Y., 2020. "Regional impact of rail network accessibility on residential property price: Modelling spatial heterogeneous capitalisation effects in Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 244-263.
    8. Kenzo Asahi, 2014. "The Impact of Better School Accessibility on Student outcomes," SERC Discussion Papers 0156, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Mitra, Suman K. & Saphores, Jean-Daniel M., 2016. "The value of transportation accessibility in a least developed country city – The case of Rajshahi City, Bangladesh," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 184-200.
    10. Pogonyi, Csaba G. & Graham, Daniel J. & Carbo, Jose M., 2021. "Metros, agglomeration and displacement. Evidence from London," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Seungwoo Chin & Matthew E. Kahn & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2020. "Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 886-914, September.
    12. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt, 2013. "Urbanity," SERC Discussion Papers 0136, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. E. V. Leontev & I. A. Mayburov, 2021. "Realization of the Benefits from the Functioning of Municipal Electric Transport in the Taxation of the Property of Individuals," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(3), pages 406-427.
    14. Shutian Zhou & Guofang Zhai & Yijun Shi, 2018. "What Drives the Rise of Metro Developments in China? Evidence from Nantong," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    15. Lee, Jae Kwang, 2021. "Transport infrastructure investment, accessibility change and firm productivity: Evidence from the Seoul region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    16. Mathilde Poulhes, 2017. "From Latin Quarter to Montmartre Investigating Parisian Real-Estate Prices," Working Papers 2017-13, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Gaston Tchang, 2016. "The impact of highway proximity on distribution centres’ rents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(13), pages 2834-2848, October.
    18. Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2012. "Driving Up Wages: The Effects of Road Construction in Great Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0120, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Konstantin Klemmer & Tobias Brandt & Stephen Jarvis, 2018. "Isolating the effect of cycling on local business environments in London," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-31, December.
    20. Shutian Zhou & Guofang Zhai & Yuwen Lu & Yijun Shi, 2021. "The development of urban mega-projects in China: A case study of Nantong’s metro project," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(4), pages 759-774, May.
    21. Erman,Alvina Elisabeth & Dallmann,Ingrid, 2022. "Putting a Price on Safety — A Hedonic Price Approach to Flood Risk in African Cities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10127, The World Bank.
    22. D’Arcangelo, Filippo Maria & Percoco, Marco, 2015. "Housing rent and road pricing in Milan: Evidence from a geographical discontinuity approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 108-116.
    23. Lee, Jae Kwang, 2022. "New rail transit projects and land values: The difference in the impact of rail transit investment on different land types, values and locations," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

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