[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/103378.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India?

Author

Listed:
  • Fontes, Francisco
  • Gorst, Ashley
  • Palmer, Charles
Abstract
Drought events have critical impacts on agricultural production yet there is little consensus on how these should be measured and defined, with implications for drought research and policy. We develop a flexible rainfall-temperature drought index that captures all dry events and we classify these as Type 1 (above-average cooling degree days) and Type 2 droughts (below-average cooling degree days). Applied to a panel dataset of Indian districts over 1966-2009, Type 2 droughts are found to have negative marginal impacts comparable to those of Type 1 droughts. Irrigation more effectively reduces Type 2 drought-induced yield losses than Type 1 yield losses. Over time, Type 1 drought losses have declined while Type 2 losses have risen. Estimates of average yield losses due to Type 1 droughts are reduced by up to 27 per cent when Type 2 droughts are omitted. The associated ex-post economic costs in terms of rice production are underestimated by up to 124 per cent.

Suggested Citation

  • Fontes, Francisco & Gorst, Ashley & Palmer, Charles, 2020. "Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103378, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:103378
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/103378/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2007. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(1), pages 1-20.
    2. Qunying Luo, 2011. "Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 583-598, December.
    3. Pandey, S. & Bhandari, H. & Hardy, B., 2007. "Economic Costs of Drought and Rice Farmers’ Coping Mechanisms: A Cross-Country Comparative Analysis," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 281814.
    4. David B. Lobell & Adam Sibley & J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, 2012. "Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 186-189, March.
    5. Sarsons, Heather, 2015. "Rainfall and conflict: A cautionary tale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 62-72.
    6. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
    7. Stefan Dercon, 0. "Fate and Fear: Risk and Its Consequences in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(suppl_2), pages -127.
    8. Manisha Shah & Bryce Millett Steinberg, 2017. "Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 527-561.
    9. Gammans, Matthew & Mérel, Pierre & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2016. "The impact of climate change on cereal yields: Statistical evidence from France," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236322, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Francisco Pereira Fontes, Ashley Gorst, Charles Palmer, 2017. "Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced cereal losses in India?," GRI Working Papers 274, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    11. Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 105-124.
    12. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    13. Seema Jayachandran, 2006. "Selling Labor Low: Wage Responses to Productivity Shocks in Developing Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 538-575, June.
    14. Birthal, Pratap S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin & Agarwal, Shaily, 2015. "Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-12.
    15. Maximilian Auffhammer & V. Ramanathan & Jeffrey Vincent, 2012. "Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 411-424, March.
    16. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Bachu, Murthy & Van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2011. "The economic costs of extreme weather events: a hydrometeorological CGE analysis for Malawi," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 177-198, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anubhab Pattanayak & K. S. Kavi Kumar, 2022. "Fiscal Transfers, Natural Calamities and Partisan Politics: Evidence from India," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 375-392, July.
    2. Francisco Fontes & Ashley Gorst & Charles Palmer, 2021. "Threshold effects of extreme weather events on cereal yields in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Pereira Fontes, Ashley Gorst, Charles Palmer, 2017. "Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced cereal losses in India?," GRI Working Papers 274, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Anna Josephson & Jeffrey D. Michler & Talip Kilic & Siobhan Murray, 2024. "The Mismeasure of Weather: Using Remotely Sensed Earth Observation Data in Economic Context," Papers 2409.07506, arXiv.org.
    3. Michler, Jeffrey D. & Josephson, Anna & Kilic, Talip & Murray, Siobhan, 2022. "Privacy protection, measurement error, and the integration of remote sensing and socioeconomic survey data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Farmer Adaptation to Extreme Heat," Discussion Papers dp18-02, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    5. Lucia Corno & Nicole Hildebrandt & Alessandra Voena, 2020. "Age of Marriage, Weather Shocks, and the Direction of Marriage Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 879-915, May.
    6. Farzana Hossain & Reshad N. Ahsan, 2022. "When it Rains, it Pours: Estimating the Spatial Spillover Effect of Rainfall," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(2), pages 327-354, June.
    7. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate change and agriculture: farmer adaptation to extreme heat," IFS Working Papers W18/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Fernando M. Arag'on & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2019. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Subsistence Farmers' Response to Extreme Heat," Papers 1902.09204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
    10. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2023. "The Impact of Climate Change on Risk and Return in Indian Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(1), pages 1-27, May.
    11. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. Jeffrey D. Michler & Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi & Jonathan Giezendanner & Anna Josephson & Valerien O. Pede & Elizabeth Tellman, 2024. "Impact Evaluations in Data Poor Settings: The Case of Stress-Tolerant Rice Varieties in Bangladesh," Papers 2409.02201, arXiv.org.
    13. Barbora Sedova & Matthias Kalkuhl & Robert Mendelsohn, 2020. "Distributional Impacts of Weather and Climate in Rural India," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-44, April.
    14. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena, 2021. "Droughts and Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Papers halshs-03420657, HAL.
    15. Madhusudan Ghosh, 2019. "Climate-smart Agriculture, Productivity and Food Security in India," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 4(2), pages 166-187, July.
    16. Shahzad Alvi & Faisal Jamil & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2020. "Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    17. Carpena, Fenella, 2019. "How do droughts impact household food consumption and nutritional intake? A study of rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 349-369.
    18. Sekhri, Sheetal & Storeygard, Adam, 2014. "Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 212-223.
    19. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah, 2019. "Crop diversification and resilience of agriculture to climatic shocks: Evidence from India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 345-354.
    20. Chen, Xiaoguang & Chen, Shuai, 2018. "China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China’s rice sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4), October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agriculture; rice; climate; drought; India; rainfall; temperature;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:103378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.