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Institutional corruption and election fraud: evidence from a field experiment in Afghanistan

Author

Listed:
  • Callen, Michael
  • Long, James D.
Abstract
We investigate the relationship between political networks, weak institutions, and election fraud during the 2010 parliamentary election in Afghanistan combining: (i) data on political connections between candidates and election officials; (ii) a nationwide controlled evaluation of a novel monitoring technology; and (iii) direct measurements of aggregation fraud. We find considerable evidence of aggregation fraud in favor of connected candidates and that the announcement of a new monitoring technology reduced theft of election materials by about 60 percent and vote counts for connected candidates by about 25 percent. The results have implications for electoral competition and are potentially actionable for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Callen, Michael & Long, James D., 2015. "Institutional corruption and election fraud: evidence from a field experiment in Afghanistan," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102931, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:102931
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    Cited by:

    1. Berman, Eli & Callen, Michael & Gibson, Clark C. & Long, James D. & Rezaee, Arman, 2019. "Election fairness and government legitimacy in Afghanistan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 292-317.
    2. Berman, Eli & Callen, Mike & Gibson, Clark C. & Long, James D. & Rezaee, Arman, 2019. "Election fairness and government legitimacy in Afghanistan," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102986, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Frederico Finan & Benjamin A. Olken & Rohini Pande, 2015. "The Personnel Economics of the State," NBER Working Papers 21825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Callen, Michael, 2020. "Data and policy decisions: Experimental evidence from Pakistan," CEPR Discussion Papers 15169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Casas, Agustín & Díaz, Guillermo & Trindade, André, 2017. "Who monitors the monitor? Effect of party observers on electoral outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 136-149.
    6. Okunogbe,Oyebola Motunrayo & Santoro,Fabrizio, 2021. "The Promise and Limitations of Information Technology for Tax Mobilization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9848, The World Bank.
    7. Nikolaos Artavanis & Adair Morse & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2015. "Tax Evasion across Industries: Soft Credit Evidence from Greece," NBER Working Papers 21552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Beath, Andrew & Christia, Fotini & Enikolopov, Ruben, 2013. "Do elected councils improve governance ? experimental evidence on local institutions in Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6510, The World Bank.
    9. Gianmarco Daniele & Gemma Dipoppa, 2018. "Doing Business Below the Line: Screening, Mafias and Public Funds," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1898, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Koenig, Christoph, 2019. "Patronage and Election Fraud: Insights from Russia’s Governors 2000–2012," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 433, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    11. Curti, Filippo & Mihov, Atanas, 2018. "Fraud recovery and the quality of country governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 446-461.
    12. Luke Condra & Mohammad Isaqzadeh & Sera Linardi, 2016. "Imagined vs. Actual "Others": An Experiment on Interethnic Giving Afghanistan," Framed Field Experiments 00546, The Field Experiments Website.
    13. Callen, Michael & Gulzar, Saad & Hasanain, Ali & Khan, Muhammad Yasir & Rezaee, Arman, 2020. "Data and policy decisions: Experimental evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Ozili, Peterson K, 2019. "Bank loan loss provisioning during election years in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 96704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ozili, Peterson K, 2020. "Bank loan loss provisioning during election years: cross-country evidence," MPRA Paper 96639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fałkowski, Jan & Kurek, Przemysław J., 2021. "The power of social mobilisation: The impact of monitoring the 2015 presidential elections in Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 38-58.
    17. Benjamin Crost & Joseph H Felter & Hani Mansour & Daniel I Rees, 0. "Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 767-789.
    18. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Jin, Yan-Lin & Chevallier, Julien & Shen, Bo, 2016. "The effect of corruption on carbon dioxide emissions in APEC countries: A panel quantile regression analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 220-227.
    19. Natalia Garbiras-Díaz & Mateo Montenegro, 2022. "All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2631-2668, August.
    20. Christoph Koenig, 2024. "With a Little Help From the Crowd: Estimating Election Fraud with Forensic Methods," CEIS Research Paper 584, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 Oct 2024.
    21. Luke N. Condra & Michael Callen & Radha K. Iyengar & James D. Long & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2019. "Damaging democracy? Security provision and turnout in Afghan elections†," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 163-193, July.
    22. Beekman, Gonne & Nillesen, Eleonora & Voors, Maarten, 2018. "Sanctioning Regimes and Chief Quality: Evidence from Liberia," MERIT Working Papers 2018-011, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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