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Strategic default in the international coffee market

Author

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  • Blouin, Arthur
  • Macchiavello, Rocco
Abstract
This article studies strategic default on forward sale contracts in the international coffee market. To test for strategic default, we construct contract-specific measures of unanticipated changes in market conditions by comparing spot prices at maturity with the relevant futures prices at the contracting date. Unanticipated rises in market prices increase defaults on fixed-price contracts but not on price-indexed ones. We isolate strategic default by focusing on unanticipated rises at the time of delivery after production decisions are sunk and suppliers have been paid. Estimates suggest that roughly half of the observed defaults are strategic. We model how strategic default introduces a trade-off between insurance and counterparty risk: relative to indexed contracts, fixed-price contracts insure against price swings but create incentives to default when market conditions change. A model calibration suggests that the possibility of strategic default causes 15.8% average losses in output, significant dispersion in the marginal product of capital, and sizable negative externalities on supplying farmers.

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  • Blouin, Arthur & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2019. "Strategic default in the international coffee market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101080, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:101080
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/101080/
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    3. Nicholas Ryan, 2020. "Holding Up Green Energy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2294, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Slava Mikhed & Barry Scholnick & Man Zhang, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Default in a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 21-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Macchiavello, Rocco & Noguera, Guillermo, 2019. "International buyers' sourcing and suppliers' markups in Bangladeshi garments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102612, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Macchiavello, Rocco & Morjaria, Ameet, 2022. "Empirical approaches to trust and relational contracts," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Macchiavello, Rocco & Morjaria, Ameet, 2022. "Acquisitions, management and efficiency in Rwanda's coffee industry," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117978, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Christopher Ksoll & Rocco Macchiavello & Ameet Morjaria, 2023. "Electoral Violence and Supply Chain Disruptions in Kenya's Floriculture Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1335-1351, November.
    9. Davidson Heath & Mark Mitchell, 2023. "Market Returns and Interim Risk in Mergers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 617-635, January.
    10. Mohamed Abouaziza, 2022. "Farmer constraints and relational contracts: evidence from agricultural value chains in East Africa," Economics PhD Theses 0122, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    11. André Albuquerque Sant’Anna & Lucas Costa, 2019. "Bailing out environmental liabilities: moral hazard and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Documentos de Trabajo 17435, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
    12. Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, 2021. "Collateral Value and Strategic Default: Evidence from Auto Loans," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 209-240, June.
    13. Rocco Macchiavello & Ameet Morjaria, 2021. "Competition and Relational Contracts in the Rwanda Coffee Chain," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1089-1143.
    14. Casaburi, Lorenzo & ,, 2018. "Time vs. State in Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Contract Farming in Kenya," CEPR Discussion Papers 12896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Del Prete, Davide & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Cristian Camilo Ordoñez & Mario Muñoz Organero & Gustavo Ramirez-Gonzalez & Juan Carlos Corrales, 2024. "Smart Contracts as a Tool to Support the Challenges of Buying and Selling Coffee Futures Contracts in Colombia," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, May.
    17. Macchiavello, Rocco & Casaburi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Firm and Market Response to Saving Constraints: Evidence from the Kenyan Dairy Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 10952, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Albuquerque Sant'Anna, André & Costa, Lucas, 2021. "Environmental regulation and bail outs under weak state capacity: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon11The authors gratefully acknowledge Antonio Ambrózio, Juliano Assunção, Arthur Bragança, Filipe ," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    19. Bladimir Carrillo, 2020. "Present Bias and Underinvestment in Education? Long-Run Effects of Childhood Exposure to Booms in Colombia," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 1127-1265.
    20. Macchiavello, Rocco & Miquel-Florensa, Josepa, 2019. "Buyer-Driven Upgrading in GVCs: The Sustainable Quality Program in Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 13935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. M. Ali Choudhary & Anil K. Jain, 2022. "Credit access and relational contracts: An experiment testing informational and contractual frictions for Pakistani farmers," International Finance Discussion Papers 2022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    JEL classification:

    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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