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The changing returns to crime: do criminals respond to prices?

Author

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  • Draca, Mirko
  • Koutmeridis, Theodore
  • Machin, Stephen
Abstract
To what extent does crime follow the pattern of potential gains to illegal activity? This article presents evidence on how criminals respond to this key incentive by reporting crime–price elasticities estimated from a comprehensive crime dataset containing detailed information on stolen items for London between 2002 and 2012. Evidence of significant positive crime–price elasticities are shown, for a panel of 44 consumer goods and for commodity related goods (jewellery, fuel, and metal crimes). The reported evidence indicates that potential gains are a major empirical driver of criminal activity and a crucial part of the economic model of crime. The changing structure of goods prices helps to explain over 10–15% of the observed fall in property crime across all goods categories, and the majority of the sharp increases in the commodity related goods observed between 2002 and 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • Draca, Mirko & Koutmeridis, Theodore & Machin, Stephen, 2019. "The changing returns to crime: do criminals respond to prices?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101679, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:101679
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/101679/
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    Cited by:

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    3. Natalya Orlovska & Julia Stepanova, 2020. "Confiscation of proceeds and property related to crimes: international standards and the ECHR practice," Juridical Tribune - Review of Comparative and International Law, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 493-511, December.
    4. Fetzer, Thiemo, 2023. "Did the policy response to the energy crisis cause crime? Evidence from England," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1459, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Galiani, Sebastian & Jaitman, Laura & Weinschelbaum, Federico, 2020. "Crime and durable goods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 146-163.
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    7. Randi Hjalmarsson & Stephen Machin & Paolo Pinotti, 2024. "Crime and the labor market," CEP Discussion Papers dp2044, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Carl Hase & Johannes Kasinger, 2024. "The Pass-through of Retail Crime," Papers 2407.07201, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    9. Campaniello, Nadia & Gavrilova, Evelina, 2018. "Uncovering the gender participation gap in crime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 289-304.
    10. R Pickering & K Y Lim, 2024. "Does crime type matter in understanding the nexus between universal credit and crime? Evidence from England and Wales," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 29(1), pages 93-131, March.
    11. Tomas Brabenec & Josef Montag, 2016. "Criminals and the Price System: Evidence from Czech Metal Thieves," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp558, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    12. Aoki, Yu & Koutmeridis, Theodore, 2019. "Shaking Criminal Incentives," IZA Discussion Papers 12781, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Laura Jaitman, 2019. "Frontiers in the economics of crime: lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-36, December.
    14. Enrico Cantoni & Vincent Pons, 2021. "Strict Id Laws Don’t Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2615-2660.
    15. Qi Ge & Ignacio Sarmiento Barbieri & Rodrigo Schneider, 2021. "Sporting Events, Emotional Cues, And Crime: Spatial And Temporal Evidence From Brazilian Soccer Games," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 375-395, January.
    16. Tannenbaum, Daniel I., 2020. "Does the disclosure of gun ownership affect crime? Evidence from New York," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    17. Corrado Giulietti & Brendon McConnell, 2020. "Kicking You When You're Already Down: The Multipronged Impact of Austerity on Crime," Papers 2012.08133, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    18. Kerri Agnew, 2020. "Crime highways: The effect of motorway expansion on burglary rates," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 995-1024, November.
    19. Anna Bussu & Domenica Giovanna Dettori & Maria Gabriela Ladu & Manuela Pulina, 2024. "Illegal drugs and socio-economic changes in a new pivotal region: a court judgements perspective," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    20. Blesse, Sebastian & Diegmann, André, 2019. "Police reorganization and crime: Evidence from police station closures," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-044, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2019.
    21. Pengfei Jia & King Yoong Lim & Ali Raza, 2020. "Crime, different taxation, police spending and embodied human capital," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 664-698, September.
    22. Diego De la Fuente, 2024. "Remittance Income and Crime in Mexico," Working Paper Series 1024, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    23. Satadru Das & Naci Mocan, 2020. "Analyzing The Impact Of The World'S Largest Public Works Project On Crime," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1167-1182, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crime; good prices; metal crime; commodity prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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