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Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermathof the financial crisis

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  • Oulton, Nicholas
Abstract
In this paper I argue that the financial crisis is likely to have a long term impact on the level of labour productivity in the UK while leaving the long run growth rate unaffected. Based entirely on pre-crisis data, and using a two-sector growth model, I project the future growth rate of GDP per hour in the market sector to be 2.61% p.a. Based on a cross-country panel analysis of 61 countries over 1950-2010, the permanent reduction in the level of GDP per worker resulting from the crisis could be substantial, about 5½%. The cross-country evidence also suggests that there are permanent effects on employment, implying a possibly even larger hit to the level of GDP per capita of about 9%.

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  • Oulton, Nicholas, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermathof the financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58239, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:58239
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    Cited by:

    1. Oulton, Nicholas & Wallis, Gavin, 2016. "Capital stocks and capital services: Integrated and consistent estimates for the United Kingdom, 1950–2013," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 117-125.
    2. Nicholas Crafts, 2014. "Ireland’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: a Phoenix Rising?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(1), pages 87-112.
    3. Nicholas Oulton & Gavin Wallis, 2015. "Integrated Estimates of Capital Stocks and Services for the United Kingdom: 1950-2013," CEP Discussion Papers dp1342, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Rebecca Riley & Chiara Rosazza-Bondibene, 2015. "The UK Productivity Puzzle 2008-2013: Evidence From British Businesses," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 450, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Gavin Wallis, 2018. "Accounting for the UK Productivity Puzzle: A Decomposition and Predictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(339), pages 581-605, July.
    6. Riley, Rebecca & Rosazza-Bondibene, Chiara & Young, Garry, 2015. "The UK productivity puzzle 2008-13: evidence from British businesses," Bank of England working papers 531, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity; potential output; growth; financial; banking crisis; recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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