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International Effects of China's Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives

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  • Rod Tyers
Abstract
Opinion over the global implications of China's rise is divided between critics, who see it as having developed at the expense of both investment and employment in the US, Europe and Japan and proponents who emphasise improvements in the terms of trade and reductions to the cost of financing that stem from China's supply of light manufactures, its demand for Western capital and luxury goods and its high saving. The criticism implies Keynesian assumptions while proponents take a neoclassical perspective. In this paper, both are embodied in a simple global, short run, macro model that emphasises bilateral linkages via both trade and investment and so helps clarify the international effects of both China's expansion, its high saving and of the new "inward focus" of its policy regimes. For the US and Europe, China's successful export-oriented growth is shown to offer net benefits, though there are partially offsetting Keynesian effects that have caused considerable distributional stress. It's recent, slower, more consumption focussed growth is shown to be unambiguously beneficial in those regions and in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Tyers, 2013. "International Effects of China's Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives," CAMA Working Papers 2013-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-44
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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "Automation and inequality with taxes and transfers," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(1), pages 68-100, February.
    2. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2019. "Financial Integration and the Global Effects of China's Growth Surge," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Rod Tyers, 2016. "Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 66-88, February.
    4. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Tyers, Rod, 2014. "Looking inward for transformative growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-184.
    6. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2020. "US–China rivalry: The macro policy choices," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2286-2314, September.
    7. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; International Trade; International Finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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