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Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered

Author

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland
  • Leif Anders Thorsrud
  • Ragnar Torvik
Abstract
In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the conclusions drawn from earlier models of learning by doing (LBD) and the Dutch disease. In particular, the resource movement effect suggests that the growth effects of natural resources are likely to be positive, turning previous growth results in the literature relying on the spending effect on their head. We motivate the relevance of our approach by the example of a major oil producer, Norway. Empirically we find that the effects of an increase in the price of oil may resemble results found in the earlier Dutch disease literature, while the effects of increased oil activity increases productivity in most industries. Therefore, models that only focus on windfall gains due to increased spending potential from higher oil prices, would conclude - incorrectly based on our analysis - that the resource sector cannot be an engine of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Ragnar Torvik, 2019. "Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered," CAMA Working Papers 2019-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-55
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-08/55_2019_bjornland_thorsrud_torvik.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    16. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1013-1028, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2018. "The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects," Working Papers No 8/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    3. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2024. "The Dutch disease revisited: consistency of theory and evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 553-603, March.
    4. Bergholt, Drago & Røisland, Øistein & Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar, 2023. "Monetary policy when export revenues drop," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Nida Cakir Melek & Michael Plante & Mine Yucel, 2021. "Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S. Shale Oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 307-332, October.
    6. Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero & Marco Alberto Nu ez Ramirez & Jorge Salas Vargas & Luis Fernando Escobar Caba & Sacnict Valdez del R o, 2019. "Landlocked Countries, Natural Resources and Growth: The Double Economic Curse Hypothesis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 113-124.
    7. Mendez Ramos,Fabian, 2020. "Sudden Influxes of Resource Wealth to the Economy : Avoiding"Dutch Disease"," Research and Policy Briefs 147609, The World Bank.
    8. Yu, Haijing & Hu, Chenpei & Xu, Bing, 2022. "Re-examining the existence of a “resource curse”: A spatial heterogeneity perspective," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1004-1011.
    9. Fabian Mendez Ramos, 2020. "Sudden Influxes of Resource Wealth to the Economy," World Bank Publications - Reports 33614, The World Bank Group.
    10. Benedictow, Andreas & Hammersland, Roger, 2023. "Transition risk of a petroleum currency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Stoknes, Per Espen & Aslaksen, Iulie & Goluke, Ulrich & Randers, Jorgen & Garnåsjordet, Per Arild, 2024. "Plausible futures for the Norwegian offshore energy sector: Business as usual, harvest or rebuild?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    12. McDonald, Lewis & Üngör, Murat, 2021. "New oil discoveries in Guyana since 2015: Resource curse or resource blessing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Jon Ellingsen & Caroline Espegren, 2022. "Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers," Working Papers No 06/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    14. Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Are European natural gas markets connected? A time-varying spillovers analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Udemba, Edmund Ntom & Yalçıntaş, Selin, 2022. "Unveiling the symptoms of Dutch disease: A comparative and sustainable analysis of two oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Szafranek Karol & Rubaszek Michał, 2024. "Have European natural gas prices decoupled from crude oil prices? Evidence from TVP-VAR analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(3), pages 507-530.
    17. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate risk and commodity currencies," Working Paper 2020/18, Norges Bank.
    18. Sardar, Naafey & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between oil supply news shocks and U.S. economic activity: Role of the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2019. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction," Working Papers No 08/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    20. Jon Ellingsen & Caroline Espegren, 2022. "Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers," Working Papers No 06/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    21. Lars Christian Bruno & Riana Steen, 2022. "Norwegian oil market concentration and its effects on the oil service companies 1993–2013," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 242-262, May.
    22. Nguyen, Bao & Sum, Dek, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Balance Adjustments in Papua New Guinea," MPRA Paper 93033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Vatsa, Puneet & Hu, Baiding, 2021. "Intra-federal effects of oil prices: Evidence from Canada," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    24. Julia Skretting, 2022. "Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia," Working Papers No 02/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dutch disease; resource movements; learning by doing; analytics of multidimensional dynamic systems; time-varying VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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