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Weakness in investment growth: Causes, implications and policy responses

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  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Franziska Ohnsorge
  • Lei Sandy Ye
  • Ergys Islamaj
Abstract
Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. It reports four main results. First, the slowdown has been broad-based and most pronounced in the largest emerging markets and in commodity exporters. Second, it reflects a range of obstacles: weak activity, negative terms-of-trade shocks, declining foreign direct investment inflows, elevated private debt burdens, heightened political risk, and adverse spillovers from major economies. Third, by slowing capital accumulation and technological progress embedded in investment, weak post-crisis investment growth has contributed to sluggish growth of potential output in recent years. Finally, although specific policy priorities depend on country circumstances, policymakers can boost investment both directly, through public investment, and indirectly, by encouraging private investment, including foreign direct investment, and by undertaking measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Lei Sandy Ye & Ergys Islamaj, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth: Causes, implications and policy responses," CAMA Working Papers 2017-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-19
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    3. Sinem Kilic Celik & M.Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2020. "Subdued potential growth: Sources and remedies," CAMA Working Papers 2020-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 89-190.
    5. Florian Botte & Laurent Cordonnier & Thomas Dallery & Vincent Duwicquet & Jordan Melmies & Franck van de Velde, 2017. "The cost of capital: between losses and diversion of wealth [Le coût du capital : entre pertes et détournement de richesses]," Working Papers hal-01711157, HAL.
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    7. Lawless, Martina & Martinez-Cillero, Maria & O'Toole, Conor, 2021. "SME investment determinants and financing constraints: A stochastic frontier approach," Papers WP699, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ytallo Brito, 2021. "The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(50), pages 5864-5876, October.
    9. OGAWA Kazuo & Elmer STERKEN & TOKUTSU Ichiro, 2019. "Why Is Investment So Weak Despite High Profitability? A panel study of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 19009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," BIS Working Papers 839, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Eduardo Borensztein & Lei Sandy Ye, 2021. "Corporate debt overhang and investment in emerging economies: Firm‐level evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 18-39, April.
    14. Sinem Kilic Celik & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards and Policies," CAMA Working Papers 2023-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    16. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Pravakar Sahoo & Ashwani Bishnoi, 2021. "Investment Slowdown in India: Role of Fiscal-Monetary policy and Economic Uncertainty," IEG Working Papers 439, Institute of Economic Growth.
    18. Min, Feng & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2022. "Measuring the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on domestic investment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 395-412.
    19. Bitros, George C. & Nadiri, M. Ishaq, 2017. "Elasticities of Business Investment in the U.S. and their Policy Implications: A Disaggregate Approach to Modeling and Estimation," MPRA Paper 80091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2017 - Weltwirtschaft im Aufschwung [World Economy Autumn 2017 - World economy in full swing]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    21. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2021. "Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    22. Martinez-Cillero, Maria & Lawless, Martina & O'Toole, Conor, 2023. "Analysing SME investment, financing constraints and its determinants. A stochastic frontier approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 578-588.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; developing economies; investment slowdown; policy space; infrastructure investment; monetary policy; fiscal policy; structural reforms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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