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Food Security, Structural Transformation, Markets and Government Policy

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  • C. Peter Timmer
Abstract
Food prices are a key signal about what is happening to food security, and two dimensions are important: their average level (and whether this is rising or falling in the long run) and their volatility. Food price instability slows down economic growth and the structural transformation that is the pathway out of rural poverty. The best approaches to improving food security depend on which global food price regime is likely to drive policy formation between now and 2050. The historical path of structural transformation with falling food prices, leading to a ‘world without agriculture’, is an obvious possibility. But continued financial instability, coupled with the impact of climate change, could lead to a new and uncertain path of rising real costs for food, with a reversal of structural transformation. Management of food policy, and the outlook for sustained poverty reduction, will be radically different depending on which of these global price regimes plays out.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Peter Timmer, 2017. "Food Security, Structural Transformation, Markets and Government Policy," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 201701, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:appswp:201701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Lin Xie & Jiahua Liao & Haiting Chen & Xuefei Yan & Xinyan Hu, 2021. "Is Futurization the Culprit for the Violent Fluctuation in China’s Apple Spot Price?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Ogunlesi, Ayodeji & Bokana, Koye & Okoye, Chidozie & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2018. "Agricultural Productivity and Food Supply Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa: LSDV and SYS-GMM Approach," MPRA Paper 90204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Anna Josephson, 2021. "Intra-Household Management of Joint Resources: Evidence from Malawi," Papers 2112.12766, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    5. Consoli, Sarah & Egas Yerovi, Juan José & Morales Opazo, Cristian, 2022. "Realigning policy interventions on agricultural prices – Monitoring incentives in low- and middle-income countries during the first wave of COVID-19," ESA Working Papers 324077, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    6. Consoli, Sarah & Egas Yerovi, Juan José & Machiorlatti, Matteo & Morales Opazo, Cristian, 2023. "Real-time monitoring of food price policy interventions during the first two years of COVID-19," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Prabhu Pingali & Mathew Abraham, 2022. "Food systems transformation in Asia – A brief economic history," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(6), pages 895-910, November.
    8. Norbu, Nyingtob Pema & Tateno, Yusuke & Bolesta, Andrzej, 2021. "Structural transformation and production linkages in Asia-Pacific least developed countries: An input-output analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 510-524.
    9. Shimelis Araya Geda & Rainer Kühl, 2021. "Exploring Smallholder Farmers’ Preferences for Climate-Smart Seed Innovations: Empirical Evidence from Southern Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Fabinin, Akem Nina, 2021. "Pulse, Export and Staple Convenience Food: Market Analysis in West Africa," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315370, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Huang, Jikun & Shi, Pengfei, 2023. "IFAD Research Series 90: Rural Transformation, Income Growth and Poverty Reduction by Province in China in the Past Four Decades," IFAD Research Series 335374, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    12. Aslihan Arslan, Romina Cavatassi, Marup Hossain, 2022. "Research Series 69: Structural and rural transformation and food systems: a quantitative synthesis for LMICs," IFAD Research Series 320720, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    13. Enock Warinda & Dickson M Nyariki & Stephen Wambua & Reuben M Muasya & Munir A Hanjra, 2020. "Sustainable development in East Africa: impact evaluation of regional agricultural development projects in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 3-39, February.
    14. Bilenko, Yuriy, 2022. "Labor productivity in the agriculture, structural shifts and economic growth in the Central and Eastern European countries," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(4), December.
    15. Amolegbe, Khadijat B. & Upton, Joanna & Bageant, Elizabeth & Blom, Sylvia, 2021. "Food price volatility and household food security: Evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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    Keywords

    food security; economic development; government policy; market prices; climate change; structural transformation;
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