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Long-Run Price Elasticities of Demand for Credit: Evidence from a Countrywide Field Experiment in Mexico

Author

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  • Karlan, Dean

    (Yale University)

  • Zinman, Jonathan

    (Dartmouth College)

Abstract
We use randomized interest rates, offered across eighty geographically distinct regions for twenty-nine months by Mexico’s largest microlender, to sketch the adjustment from a price change to a new equilibrium. Demand is elastic, and more so over the longer run; e.g. the dollars-borrowed elasticity increases from $-$1.1 in Year one to $-$2.9 in Year three. Credit bureau data do not show evidence of crowd-out, although this and other null results are imprecisely estimated. The lender’s profits increase, albeit noisily, starting in Year two. But competitors do not respond by reducing rates. These findings, together with other results, suggest that informational frictions are important, and that cutting rates furthered Compartamos Banco’s “double bottom line” of improving social welfare subject to a profitability constraint.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Karlan, Dean & Zinman, Jonathan, 2013. "Long-Run Price Elasticities of Demand for Credit: Evidence from a Countrywide Field Experiment in Mexico," Working Papers 115, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:yaleco:115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bengtsson, Niklas & Pettersson, Jan, 2012. "The Outreach and Sustainability of Microfinance: Is There a Tradeoff?," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2012:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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    4. Manuela Angelucci & Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2013. "Win Some Lose Some? Evidence from a Randomized Microcredit Program Placement Experiment by Compartamos Banco," Working Papers 1026, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    5. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
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    7. Dehejia, Rajeev & Montgomery, Heather & Morduch, Jonathan, 2012. "Do interest rates matter? Credit demand in the Dhaka slums," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 437-449.
    8. Rob Alessie & Stefan Hochguertel & Guglielmo Weber, 2005. "Consumer Credit: Evidence From Italian Micro Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 144-178, March.
    9. Manuela Angelucci, Dean Karlan, Jonathan Zinman, 2013. "Win Some Lose Some? Evidence from a Randomized Microcredit Program Placement Experiment by Compartamos Banco-Working Paper 330," Working Papers 330, Center for Global Development.
    10. Dean S. Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2008. "Credit Elasticities in Less-Developed Economies: Implications for Microfinance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1040-1068, June.
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    2. Manthos D Delis & Sizhe Hong & Nikos Paltalidis & Dennis Philip, 2022. "Forward Guidance and Corporate Lending [Measuring euro area monetary policy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 899-935.
    3. Robin Burgess & Michael Greenstone & Nicholas Ryan & Anant Sudarshan, 2020. "Demand for Electricity on the Global Electrification Frontier," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Garber, Gabriel & Mian, Atif & Ponticelli, Jacopo & Sufi, Amir, 2024. "Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Richard Hornbeck, 2018. "How Much do Existing Borrowers Value Microfinance? Evidence from an Experiment on Bundling Microcredit and Insurance," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 671-700, October.
    6. Bruno Ferman, 2016. "Reading the Fine Print: Information Disclosure in the Brazilian Credit Card Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3534-3548, December.
    7. Natalie Cox, 2017. "Pricing, Selection, and Welfare in the Student Loan Market: Evidence from Borrower Repayment Decisions," Working Papers 2017-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    8. Xiangming Fang & David Jutrsa & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Mr. Felix J Vardy, 2018. "The Effects of Higher Bank Capital Requirements on Credit in Peru," IMF Working Papers 2018/222, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther, 2014. "(Measured) Profit is Not Welfare: Evidence from an Experiment on Bundling Microcredit and Insurance," CEPR Discussion Papers 10146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Joseph L. Breeden, 2024. "An Age–Period–Cohort Framework for Profit and Profit Volatility Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    11. Benjamin L. Collier & Daniel A. Hartley & Benjamin J. Keys & Jing Xian Ng, 2024. "Credit When You Need It," NBER Working Papers 32845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hisaki KONO & Abu SHONCHOY & Kazushi TAKAHASHI, 2023. "At the Right Time:Eliminating Mismatch between Cash Flow and Credit Flow in Microcredit," Discussion papers e-22-013, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    13. Bacchiocchi, Andrea & Bischi, Gian Italo & Giombini, Germana, 2022. "Non-performing loans, expectations and banking stability: A dynamic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    14. Giné, Xavier & Karlan, Dean S., 2014. "Group versus individual liability: Short and long term evidence from Philippine microcredit lending groups," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 65-83.
    15. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Dursun-de Neef, H. Özlem & Hacihasanoğlu, Yavuz Selim & Yılmaz, Fatih, 2023. "Cost of credit, mortgage demand and house prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    16. Bando, Rosangela & Uribe, Claudia, 2016. "Experimental Evidence on Credit Constraints," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7491, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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