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Terrorism and the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Karolyi, G. Andrew

    (Ohio State U)

  • Martell, Rodolfo

    (Purdue U)

Abstract
This paper examines the stock price impact of terrorist attacks. Using an official list of terrorism related incidents compiled by the Counterterrorism Office of the U.S. Department of State, we identify 75 attacks between 1995 and 2002 in which publicly traded firms are targets. An event study analysis around the day of the attacks uncovers evidence of a statistically significant negative stock price reaction of -0.83%, which corresponds to an average loss per firm per attack of $401 million in firm market capitalization. A cross sectional analysis of the abnormal returns indicates that the impact of terrorist attacks differs according to the home country of the target firm and the country in which the incident occurred. Attacks in countries that are wealthier and more democratic are associated with larger negative share price reactions. Most interestingly, we find that human capital losses, such as kidnappings of company executives, are associated with larger negative stock price reactions than physical losses, such as bombings of facilities or buildings. We discuss the implications of these findings for existing research on terrorism and for current policy debates like the renewal of the U.S. Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA).

Suggested Citation

  • Karolyi, G. Andrew & Martell, Rodolfo, 2005. "Terrorism and the Stock Market," Working Paper Series 2005-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2005-19
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    File URL: http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/fin/dice/papers/2005/2005-19.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Capelle-Blancard, Gunther & Couderc, Nicolas, 2008. "What drives the market value of firms in the defense industry," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 14-32.
    2. Shashitha Gimhani Jayakody, 2017. "The Impact of the Sri Lankan Civil War on the Stock Market Performances," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 394-402.
    3. Dumitru-Cristian OANEA & Ștefan-Bogdan VASILESCU, 2015. "Impact Of Fsa Decision No. 23 From 5th February, 2014: Event Study Approach," Network Intelligence Studies, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 6, pages 109-116, December.
    4. Dumitru-Cristian Oanea & Stela Jakova, 2016. "Impact of SNB Decision to Unpeg the Franc from Euro on Financial Markets: Event Study Approach," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(12), pages 217-227, April.
    5. Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
    6. Dumitru-Cristian Oanea & Stela Jakova, 2016. "Impact of SNB Decision to Unpeg the Franc from Euro on Financial Markets: Event Study Approach," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(2), pages 217-227, April.
    7. Al-Ississ Mohamad, 2015. "The Cross-Border Impact of Political Violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 239-272, April.
    8. Qiuyun Wang & Lu Liu, 2022. "Pandemic or panic? A firm-level study on the psychological and industrial impacts of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-38, December.

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