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Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices

Author

Listed:
  • De Santis, Roberto A.
  • Tornese, Tommaso
Abstract
We use a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model identified through sign and narrative restrictions to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of energy supply shocks. We find that the transmission of energy supply shocks on consumer prices is stronger in high-inflation regimes, supporting state-dependent models. The faster pass-thorough of energy supply shocks to consumer prices (excl. energy) cushions the drop in output in the short term. Energy supply shocks have a stronger impact on output in the medium-term with manufacturing being more adversely affected than GDP. Large energy supply shocks shift the economy to another state but after two and half years the mean-reversion to lower inflation implies a more moderate transmission mechanism, highlighting the importance of state-dependent impulse responses. The energy supply shocks between July 2021 and June 2022 are massive amounting to 3.9 standard deviations on average each month. JEL Classification: C32, E32

Suggested Citation

  • De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2023. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," Working Paper Series 2834, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232834
    Note: 185689
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2834~db448f2eb2.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Galstyan, Vahagn, 2023. "Understanding the Joint Dynamics of Inflation and Wage Growth in the Euro Area," Research Technical Papers 11/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.
    3. Arce, Óscar & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Kornprobst, Antoine, 2024. "What caused the euro area post-pandemic inflation?," Occasional Paper Series 343, European Central Bank.
    4. Marco Fruzzetti & Tiziano Ropele, 2024. "Nowcasting Italian industrial production: the predictive role of lubricant oils," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 866, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Miescu, Mirela & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2024. "Non-linear Dynamics of Oil Supply News Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; energy shocks; narrative identification; non-linearities; TVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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