[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/macroe/22586.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Cooperation in East Asia – Why a Basket Approach may be best

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Wilson

    (SCAPE)

Abstract
In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, the issue of the choice of exchange rate regime for East Asian (EA) countries re-emerged. The crisis had demonstrated, amongst other things, that unilateral exchange rate regimes (including de facto dollar pegging) hadnt coped very well in the 1990s faced with massive capital inflows into the region (Kwan et al., 1998), with the possible exceptions of Singapore and Taiwan. The immediate response to the crisis was that a corner solution might be better. Either keep convertibility and fix the currency, preferably backed up with a currency board, but abandon monetary independence; or keep monetary policy and convertibility but abandon currency management and adopt a free float. But a hard peg is perceived to be too rigid for most countries in EA and the potential costs of a clean float are seen to be too great for emerging economies with weak financial infrastructure because of the risks of serious currency misalignment and destabilising speculation. The objective of this paper is to address some of these counterfactuals by looking at the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the NEER and the bilateral rate against the US$ for nine EA countries after the Asian financial crisis. 9 Our counterfactuals include a UBP, a CBP, and a hard peg against the US$, but in contrast to previous counterfactual exercises, such as Williamson (1998a) and Ohno (1999) which compute the weights for effective exchange rates on the basis of simple bloc aggregates, we apply a more disaggregated methodology using a larger number of trade partners. We also utilize ARCH/GARCH techniques to obtain estimates of heteroskedastic variances to better capture the time-varying characteristics of volatility for the actual and simulated exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Wilson, 2007. "Exchange Rate Cooperation in East Asia – Why a Basket Approach may be best," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22586, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22586
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22586
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Robert Lafrance & Patrick Osakwe & Pierre St-Amant, 1998. "Evaluating Alternative Measures of the Real Effective Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 98-20, Bank of Canada.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
    5. Rose, Andrew, 2006. "A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed," CEPR Discussion Papers 5854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    7. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2002. "Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1125-1151, June.
    8. Luci Ellis, 2001. "Measuring the Real Exchange Rate: Pitfalls and Practicalities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jun 1994.
    10. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    11. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Optimal currency baskets and the third currency phenomenon: exchange rate policy in Southeast Asia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(8), pages 1053-1073.
    12. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Suzuki, Ayako, 2004. "The basket-peg, dollar-peg, and floating: A comparative analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 183-217, June.
    13. Ramikishen Rajan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post‐crisis Southeast Asia: Is There a Case for Currency Baskets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 137-163, January.
    14. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Monetary and Financial Cooperation in Asia : Emerging Trends and Prospects," Finance Working Papers 22125, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Hoe Ee Khor & Jason Lee & Edward Robinson & Saktiandi Supaat, 2007. "Managed Float Exchange Rate System: The Singapore Experience," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(01), pages 7-25.
    16. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Wilson & Henry Ng Shang Ren, 2006. "Managing Exchange Rate Volatility: A Comparative Counterfactual Analysis of Singapore 1994 to 2003," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0608, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
    2. Peter Wilson & Henry Ng Shang Ren, 2006. "Managing Exchange Rate Volatility : A Comparative Counterfactual Analysis Of Singapore 1994 To 2003," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22584, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Peter Wilson & Henry Shang Ren Ng, 2009. "Managing Exchange Rate Volatility: A Comparative Counterfactual Analysis Of Singapore, 1994–2003," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(04), pages 543-568.
    4. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Designing Appropriate Exchange Rate Regimes for East Asia: Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-09, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    5. Cavoli, Tony, 2009. "Is fear of floating justified?: The East Asia experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16.
    6. S. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2010. "The Evolution and Impact of Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 208, Asian Development Bank.
    7. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    8. Robert-Paul Berben & Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Requirements for successful currency regimes: the Dutch and Thai experiences," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-16, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    9. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Otani, Akira, 2002. "Do Currency Regimes Matter in the 21st Century? An Overview," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 47-79, December.
    10. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
    11. Ogawa, Eiji & Shimizu, Junko, 2006. "Stabilization of effective exchange rates under common currency basket systems," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 590-611, December.
    12. repec:aly:journl:202049 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "The Evolving Asian Financial Architecture," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-03, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    14. Teo, Wing Leong, 2009. "Should East Asia's currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 283-308, September.
    15. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "The Political Economy of A Trade-First Approach to Regionalism," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-18, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    16. Cavoli, Tony, 2008. "The exchange rate and optimal monetary policy rules in open and developing economies: Some simple analytics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1011-1021, September.
    17. Eiji Ogawa & Junko Shimizu, 2006. "Stabilization of Effective Exchange Rates Under Common Currency Basket Systems," NBER Working Papers 12198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Wong, Kin-Ming & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2016. "Does monetary policy matter for trade?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 107-125.
    19. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Marcio Holland, 2009. "Common currency and economic integration in Mercosul," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 213-234, December.
    20. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    21. Andrea Bonilla‐Bolaños, 2021. "A step further in the theory of regional integration: A look at the South American integration strategy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 845-873, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    East Asian; Asian financial crisis aftermath; exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22586. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shiro Armstrong (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaberau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.