[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/emx/ceedoc/2010-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Social protection programs and employment: The case of Mexico’s “Seguro Popular” program

Author

Listed:
  • Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez

    (El Colegio de México)

  • Melissa A. Knox

    (University of Washington)

Abstract
Mexico created Seguro Popular in 2002 with the goal of providing free or subsidized health insurance coverage to 47 million uninsured people by the year 2013. Only individuals lacking the social security protections granted to all formal sector workers and their families are eligible. Hence, one unintended consequence of the program could be an increase in the size of the informal sector. The introduction of the Seguro Popular program was conducted in stages, across municipalities and time. We exploit this variation and implement a differences-in-differences approach in order to identify the causal effect of the program in formal employment outcomes. We analyze the effect of Seguro Popular using 33 large and relatively rich cities from labor force surveys conducted from 2001 to 2004. In order to measure the effect for poorer municipalities, we also use the individual-level Oportunidades dataset that covers 136 municipalities from 2002 to 2004. We find little evidence of any correlation between Seguro Popular and the decision of workers to be employed in the formal or informal sector. One possible explanation of our findings is the low enrollment of the Seguro Popular program during the period we study. We provide suggestive evidence from the 33 cities that the result holds for the 2005 to 2006 period as well. We conclude that the recent increase in informal employment in Mexico is due to other causes.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez & Melissa A. Knox, 2010. "Social protection programs and employment: The case of Mexico’s “Seguro Popular” program," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2010-14, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2010-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cee.colmex.mx/dts/2010/DT-2010-14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victoria Hosegood & Anne Case & Cally Ardington, 2009. "Labor Supply Responses to Large Social Transfers: Longitudinal Evidence from South Africa," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 22-48, January.
    2. Mariano Bosch & Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez, 2010. "The trade-offs of social assistance programs in the labor market: The case of the “Seguro Popular” program in Mexico," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2010-12, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    3. repec:pri:cheawb:case_ardington_hosegood_nber_w13442_oct07 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Leonardo Gasparini & Francisco Haimovich & Sergio Olivieri, 2007. "Labor Informality Effects of a Poverty-Alleviation Program," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0053, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    5. Adam Wagstaff, 2010. "Social health insurance reexamined," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 503-517, May.
    6. Rodrigo Barros, 2008. "Wealthier But Not Much Healthier: Effects of a Health Insurance Program for the Poor in Mexico," Discussion Papers 09-002, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Aterido, Reyes & Hallward-Driemeier, Mary & Pages, Carmen, 2011. "Does expanding health insurance beyond formal-sector workers encourage informality ? measuring the impact of Mexico's Seguro Popular," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5785, The World Bank.
    8. repec:pri:rpdevs:case_ardington_hosegood_nber_w13442_oct07 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 1996. "Welfare Transfers in Two-Parent Families: Labor Supply and Welfare Participation under AFDC-UP," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 295-332, March.
    10. repec:idb:brikps:59558 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Cristian C. Baeza & Truman G. Packard, 2006. "Beyond Survival : Protecting Households from Health Shocks in Latin America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7120.
    12. Paul A. Hagstrom, 1996. "The Food Stamp Participation and Labor Supply of Married Couples: An Empirical Analysis of Joint Decisions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(2), pages 383-403.
    13. Azuara, Oliver & Marinescu, Ioana, 2011. "Informality and the expansion of social protection programs," MPRA Paper 35073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    15. Gerardo Esquivel Hernández & Juan Luis Ordaz-Díaz, 2008. "¿Es la política social una causa de la informalidad en México?," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 1-32, May.
    16. Aterido, Reyes & Hallward-Driemeier, Mary & Pages, Carmen, 2011. "Does expanding health insurance beyond formal-sector workers encourage informality ? measuring the impact of Mexico's Seguro Popular," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5785, The World Bank.
    17. David H. Autor & John J. Donohue & Stewart J. Schwab, 2006. "The Costs of Wrongful-Discharge Laws," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 211-231, May.
    18. Moffitt, Robert A., 2002. "Welfare programs and labor supply," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 34, pages 2393-2430, Elsevier.
    19. Sebastian Galiani & Federico Weinschelbaum, 2012. "Modeling Informality Formally: Households And Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 821-838, July.
    20. Truman G. Packard & Cristian C. Baeza, 2006. "Beyond Survival: Protecting Households from Health Shocks in Latin America," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59558, February.
    21. Elizabeth Kasekende & John P. Dunne, 2016. "Financial Innovation and Money Demand in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 59, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    22. Guillermo E. Perry & William F. Maloney & Omar S. Arias & Pablo Fajnzylber & Andrew D. Mason & Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi, 2007. "Informality : Exit and Exclusion," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6730.
    23. repec:pri:cheawb:case_ardington_hosegood_nber_w13442_oct07.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aterido, Reyes & Hallward-Driemeier, Mary & Pages, Carmen, 2011. "Does expanding health insurance beyond formal-sector workers encourage informality ? measuring the impact of Mexico's Seguro Popular," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5785, The World Bank.
    2. Conti, Gabriella & Ginja, Rita & Narita, Renata, 2018. "The Value of Health Insurance: A Household Job Search Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 11706, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Arias, Javier & Artuc, Erhan & Lederman, Daniel & Rojas, Diego, 2018. "Trade, informal employment and labor adjustment costs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 396-414.
    4. Tobias Pfutze, 2015. "Does access to health insurance reduce the risk of miscarriages? Evidence from Mexico’s Seguro popular," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Gabriella Conti & Rita Ginja, Renata Narita, 2017. "Non-Contributory Health Insurance and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_17, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    6. Tobias Pfutze & Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán, 2019. "Can a Small Social Pension Promote Labor Force Participation? Evidence from the Colombia Mayor Program," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2019), pages 111-154, October.
    7. Adriana Camacho & Emily Conover & Alejandro Hoyos, 2014. "Effects of Colombia's Social Protection System on Workers' Choice between Formal and Informal Employment," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 446-466.
    8. François Gerard & Gustavo Gonzaga, 2011. "Unemployment Insurance in Developing Countries: The Case of Brazil," Textos para discussão 593, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    9. Bazdresch Santiago, 2018. "Finance and Employment Formalization: Evidence from Mexico's ENIGH, 2000-2016," Working Papers 2018-14, Banco de México.
    10. Bosch, Mariano & Manacorda, Marco, 2012. "Social policies and labor market outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean: a review of the existing evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58003, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Alejandro del Valle, 2013. "Is Formal Employment Discouraged by the Provision of Free. Health Services to the Uninsured ? Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Mexico," PSE Working Papers halshs-00838000, HAL.
    12. Trinidad Beleche, 2019. "Domestic violence laws and suicide in Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 229-248, March.
    13. Alejandro del Valle, 2013. "Is Formal Employment Discouraged by the Provision of Free. Health Services to the Uninsured ? Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Mexico," Working Papers halshs-00838000, HAL.
    14. Nga Le Thi Quynh & Groot, Wim & Tomini, Sonila M. & Tomini, Florian, 2017. "Effects of health insurance on labour supply: A systematic review," MERIT Working Papers 2017-017, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. François Gerard & Gustavo Gonzaga, 2013. "Informal Labor and the Cost of Social Programs: Evidence from 15 Years of Unemployment Insurance in Brazil," Textos para discussão 608, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bosch, Mariano & Manacorda, Marco, 2012. "Social policies and labor market outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean: a review of the existing evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58003, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Alejandro del Valle, 2013. "Is Formal Employment Discouraged by the Provision of Free. Health Services to the Uninsured ? Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Mexico," Working Papers halshs-00838000, HAL.
    3. Adriana Camacho & Emily Conover & Alejandro Hoyos, 2014. "Effects of Colombia's Social Protection System on Workers' Choice between Formal and Informal Employment," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 446-466.
    4. Aterido, Reyes & Hallward-Driemeier, Mary & Pages, Carmen, 2011. "Does expanding health insurance beyond formal-sector workers encourage informality ? measuring the impact of Mexico's Seguro Popular," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5785, The World Bank.
    5. Garganta, Santiago & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2015. "The impact of a social program on labor informality: The case of AUH in Argentina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-110.
    6. François Gerard & Gustavo Gonzaga, 2013. "Informal Labor and the Cost of Social Programs: Evidence from 15 Years of Unemployment Insurance in Brazil," Textos para discussão 608, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    7. Alejandro del Valle, 2013. "Is Formal Employment Discouraged by the Provision of Free. Health Services to the Uninsured ? Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Mexico," PSE Working Papers halshs-00838000, HAL.
    8. Gabriella Conti & Rita Ginja, Renata Narita, 2018. "The Value of Health Insurance: A Household Job Search Approach," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    9. Wagstaff, Adam, 2009. "Social health insurance vs. tax-financed health systems - evidence from the OECD," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4821, The World Bank.
    10. Antón, Arturo & Boyd, Roy & Elizondo, Alejandra & Ibarrarán, María Eugenia, 2016. "Universal social insurance for Mexico: Modeling of a financing scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 838-850.
    11. Jaime SAAVEDRA & Mariano TOMMASI, 2007. "Informality, the State and the social contract in Latin America: A preliminary exploration," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 146(3-4), pages 279-309, September.
    12. Gabriella Conti & Rita Ginja, 2023. "Who Benefits from Free Health Insurance?: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(1), pages 146-182.
    13. Antón, Arturo & Leal, Julio, 2013. "Aggregate Effects of a Universal Social Insurance Fiscal Reform," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4580, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. Silvio Daidone & Benjamin Davis & Sudhanshu Handa & Paul Winters, 2019. "The Household and Individual-Level Productive Impacts of Cash Transfer Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1401-1431.
    15. Bergolo, M. & Cruces, G., 2021. "The anatomy of behavioral responses to social assistance when informal employment is high," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    16. Hoynes, Hilary Williamson & Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore, 2012. "Work incentives and the Food Stamp Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 151-162.
    17. María Alzúa & Guillermo Cruces & Laura Ripani, 2013. "Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries: experimental evidence from Latin America," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1255-1284, October.
    18. Dabalen,Andrew L. & Kilic,Talip & Wane,Waly & Dabalen,Andrew L. & Kilic,Talip & Wane,Waly, 2008. "Social transfers, labor supply and poverty reduction : the case of Albania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4783, The World Bank.
    19. Arturo Antón & Alejandro Rasteletti, 2022. "Taxing Labor Income in an Economy with High Employment Informality," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 33-68, June.
    20. Bruhn, Miriam, 2013. "A tale of two species: Revisiting the effect of registration reform on informal business owners in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 275-283.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mexico; informality; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2010-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ximena Varela (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cecolmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.