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Dynamic Entry with Cross Product Spillovers: An Application to the Generic Drug Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Han Hong
  • Ahmed Khwaja
  • A. Ronald Gallant
Abstract
Experience in one product market can potentially improve firm performance in a related product market in the future. Thus, entry into a market is determined not just by profits in that market but also by its future impact on profitability in other markets. We formulate and estimate a dynamic model of entry decisions of firms in the presence of such spillovers using data on the generic drug industry. Spillovers imply that a firm’s unobserved “ability” to profit in a product market not only changes stochastically but is also is endogenous to past entry decisions. Therefore, the model needs to accommodate unobserved state variables that are endogenous to firm actions and serially correlated. We address the methodological challenge of estimating such a model using a sequential importance sampling based technique. Our estimates show significant spillover effects of entry on future profits. On average, each entry reduces costs by 7% at the next entry opportunity. On average there are eight entry opportunities annually. The average cumulative benefit of a firm that enters all eight markets in a year is 51%. We conclude that spillovers are critical in the equilibrium evolution of the structure of the generic drug industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja & A. Ronald Gallant, 2010. "Dynamic Entry with Cross Product Spillovers: An Application to the Generic Drug Industry," Working Papers 10-59, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:10-59
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A. Ronald Gallant & Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja, 2012. "Bayesian Estimation of a Dynamic Game with Endogenous, Partially Observed, Serially Correlated State," Working Papers 12-01, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    2. Arnaud Doucet & Neil Shephard, 2012. "Robust inference on parameters via particle filters and sandwich covariance matrices," Economics Papers 2012-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Mitsukuni Nishida & Nathan Yang, 2014. "Better Together? Retail Chain Performance Dynamics in Store Expansion Before and After Mergers," Working Papers 14-08, NET Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Spillovers; Generic Pharmaceuticals; Sequential Importance Sampling; Dynamic Discrete Games; Unobserved Endogenous State Variables; Serial Correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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