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Unemployment and Portfolio Choice: Does Persistence Matter?

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  • Vladimir Kuzin
  • Franziska Bremus
Abstract
We use a life cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice to study the effects of social security on the investment decisions of households for the European case. Our model is mainly based on the one developed by Cocco, Gomes, and Maenhout (2005). We extend it by unemployment risk using Markov chains to model the transition between different employment states. In contrast to most models in the life cycle literature, our model allows for three different states, namely employment, short-term as well as long-term unemployment. This allows us to examine the effects of persistence in the unemployment process on portfolio choice. Our main findings are, first, that in case of short-term unemployment only, social security systems as those established in the EU are able to offset the negative impact of unemployment risk on the portfolio-share invested in risky assets. Second, the simulation results reveal that when allowing for long-term unemployment the equity-share is suppressed, especially for young investors. We show that this negative effect of unemployment is mainly driven by its persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Kuzin & Franziska Bremus, 2010. "Unemployment and Portfolio Choice: Does Persistence Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 978, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2019. "Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-340.
    2. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carolina Fugazza & Giovanna Nicodano, 2017. "A Life-Cycle Model with Unemployment Traps," Working papers 041, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    3. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2021. "Life-cycle welfare losses from rules-of-thumb asset allocation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. Branger, Nicole & Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2019. "Hedging recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 265, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    6. Philip Müller, 2016. "Poverty in Europe: Sociodemographics, Portfolios and Consumption of Wealth Poor Households," LWS Working papers 22, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    7. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "Unemployment risk, portfolio choice, and the racial wealth gap," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_508, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    8. Barasinska, Nataliya & Ludwig, Johannes & Vogel, Edgar, 2021. "The impact of borrower-based instruments on household vulnerability in Germany," Discussion Papers 20/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap," Working Papers 332, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    10. Sofia Vale & Francisco Camões, 2017. "Housing valuation, wealth perception, and households’ portfolio composition," EcoMod2017 10565, EcoMod.
    11. Ellora Derenoncourt & Chi Hyun Kim & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick, 2024. "Unemployment Risk, Portfolio Choice, and the Racial Wealth Gap," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 086, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Philip Müller, 2017. "Poverty in Europe: Sociodemographics, Portfolios, and Consumption of Wealth‐Poor Households," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(3), pages 306-330, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precautionary savings; unemployment insurance; long-term unemployment; income uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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