[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp1201.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Employment Generation in Rural Africa: Mid-Term Results from an Experimental Evaluation of the Youth Opportunities Program in Northern Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Blattman
  • Nathan Fiala
  • Sebastian Martinez
Abstract
Can cash transfers promote employment and reduce poverty in rural Africa? Will lower youth unemployment and poverty reduce the risk of social instability? We experimentally evaluate one of Uganda's largest development programs, which provided thousands of young people nearly unconditional, unsupervised cash transfers to pay for vocational training, tools, and business start-up costs. Mid-term results after two years suggest four main findings. First, despite a lack of central monitoring and accountability, most youth invest the transfer in vocational skills and tools. Second, the economic impacts of the transfer are large: hours of nonhousehold employment double and cash earnings increase by nearly 50% relative to the control group. We estimate the transfer yields a real annual return on capital of 35% on average. Third, the evidence suggests that poor access to credit is a major reason youth cannot start these vocations in the absence of aid. Much of the heterogeneity in impacts is unexplained, however, and is unrelated to conventional economic measures of ability, suggesting we have much to learn about the determinants of entrepreneurship. Finally, these economic gains result in modest improvements in social stability. Measures of social cohesion and community support improve mildly, by roughly 5 to 10%, especially among males, most likely because the youth becomes a net giver rather than a net taker in his kin and community network. Most strikingly, we see a 50% fall in interpersonal aggression and disputes among males, but a 50% increase among females. Neither change seems related to economic performance nor does social cohesion - a puzzle to be explored in the next phase of the study. These results suggest that increasing access to credit and capital could stimulate employment growth in rural Africa. In particular, unconditional and unsupervised cash transfers may be a more effective and cost-efficient form of large-scale aid than commonly believed. A second stage of data collection in 2012 will collect longitudinal economic impacts, additional data on political violence and behavior, and explore alternative theoretical mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Blattman & Nathan Fiala & Sebastian Martinez, 2012. "Employment Generation in Rural Africa: Mid-Term Results from an Experimental Evaluation of the Youth Opportunities Program in Northern Uganda," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1201, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.395796.de/dp1201.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dean Karlan & Martin Valdivia, 2011. "Teaching Entrepreneurship: Impact of Business Training on Microfinance Clients and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 510-527, May.
    2. Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith, 2001. "Lost but Not Forgotten: Attrition and Follow-up in the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(3), pages 556-592.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. de Mel, Suresh & McKenzie, David & Woodruff, Christopher, 2007. "Measuring microenterprise profits : don't ask how the sausage is made," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4229, The World Bank.
    5. Deon Filmer & Kinnon Scott, 2012. "Assessing Asset Indices," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(1), pages 359-392, February.
    6. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages 452-477, November.
    7. Frederick Golooba-Mutebi & Sam Hickey, 2010. "Governing Chronic Poverty under Inclusive Liberalism: The Case of the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 1216-1239.
    8. Duflo, Esther & Glennerster, Rachel & Kremer, Michael, 2008. "Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 61, pages 3895-3962, Elsevier.
    9. James J. Heckman & Jora Stixrud & Sergio Urzua, 2006. "The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 411-482, July.
    10. Christopher Udry & Santosh Anagol, 2006. "The Return to Capital in Ghana," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 388-393, May.
    11. Christopher Blattman & Jeannie Annan, 2010. "The Consequences of Child Soldiering," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 882-898, November.
    12. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4367.
    13. Suresh de Mel & David McKenzie & Christopher Woodruff, 2009. "Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 423-423.
    14. David Card & Pablo Ibarraran & Ferdinando Regalia & David Rosas & Yuri Soares, 2007. "The Labor Market Impacts of Youth Training in the Dominican Republic: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 12883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ghazala Mansuri & Vijayendra Rao, 2013. "Localizing Development : Does Participation Work?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11859.
    16. Miriam Bruhn & Dean Karlan & Antoinette Schoar, 2010. "What Capital Is Missing in Developing Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 629-633, May.
    17. Orazio Attanasio & Adriana Kugler & Costas Meghir, 2008. "Training Disadvantaged Youth in Latin America: Evidence from a Randomized Trial," NBER Working Papers 13931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. William A. Galston, 2001. "Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 788-790.
    19. McKenzie, David, 2012. "Beyond baseline and follow-up: The case for more T in experiments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 210-221.
    20. Banerjee, Abhijit V. & Duflo, Esther, 2005. "Growth Theory through the Lens of Development Economics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 473-552, Elsevier.
    21. Freeman, Richard B., 1999. "The economics of crime," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 52, pages 3529-3571, Elsevier.
    22. David McKenzie & Christopher Woodruff, 2008. "Experimental Evidence on Returns to Capital and Access to Finance in Mexico," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(3), pages 457-482, November.
    23. Katherine Casey & Rachel Glennerster & Edward Miguel, 2012. "Reshaping Institutions: Evidence on Aid Impacts Using a Preanalysis Plan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(4), pages 1755-1812.
    24. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Report 2011 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2011 : Conflits, sécurité et développement - Abrégé]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4389.
    25. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    26. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097, Elsevier.
    27. Sam Hickey, 2010. "The Government of Chronic Poverty: From Exclusion to Citizenship?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 1139-1155.
    28. Erica Field & Seema Jayachandran & Rohini Pande, 2010. "Do Traditional Institutions Constrain Female Entrepreneurship? A Field Experiment on Business Training in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 125-129, May.
    29. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan & Eldar Shafir, 2004. "A Behavioral-Economics View of Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 419-423, May.
    30. Hoff, Karla & Sen, Arijit, 2005. "The kin system as a poverty trap?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3575, The World Bank.
    31. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Report 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4387.
    32. Bardhan, Pranab & Udry, Christopher, 1999. "Development Microeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773719.
    33. Cristian Aedo, "undated". "The Impact of Training Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Case of "Programa Joven"," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv131, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karen Macours & Patrick Premand & Renos Vakis, 2022. "Transfers, Diversification and Household Risk Strategies: Can Productive Safety Nets Help Households Manage Climatic Variability?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2438-2470.
    2. Eichhorst, Werner & Rinne, Ulf, 2015. "An Assessment of the Youth Employment Inventory and Implications for Germany's Development Policy," IZA Research Reports 67, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. World Bank Group, 2014. "Strategic Framework for Mainstreaming Citizen Engagement in World Bank Group Operations," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21113.
    4. Zinman, Jonathan & Karlan, Dean & Osman, Adam, 2013. "Follow the Money: Methods for Identifying Consumption and Investment Responses to a Liquidity Shock," CEPR Discussion Papers 9773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Luis Henrique Paiva & Santiago Falluh Varella, 2019. "The impacts of social protection benefits on behaviours potentially related to economic growth: a literature review," Working Papers 183, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    6. Cho, Yoon Y. & Kalomba, Davie & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq & Orozco, Victor, 2013. "Gender Differences in the Effects of Vocational Training: Constraints on Women and Drop-Out Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 7408, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Bruce Wydick & Elizabeth Katz & Flor Calvo & Felipe Gutierrez & Brendan Janet, 2018. "Shoeing the Children: The Impact of the TOMS Shoe Donation Program in Rural El Salvador," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 727-751.
    8. Pablo Lavado & Jamele Rigolini & Gustavo Yamada, 2015. "Giving Peru a productivity boost : towards a system of continuous education and training," Working Papers 15-16, Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico.
    9. Robalino, David A. & Weber, Michael, 2013. "Designing and implementing unemployment benefit systems in middle and low income countries : key choices between insurance and savings accounts," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 90348, The World Bank.
    10. Balasubramanian, Pooja & Ibanez, Marcela & Khan, Sarah & Sahoo, Soham, 2024. "Does women's economic empowerment promote human development in low- and middle-income countries? A meta-analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Karlan, Dean & Osman, Adam & Zinman, Jonathan, 2016. "Follow the money not the cash: Comparing methods for identifying consumption and investment responses to a liquidity shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 11-23.
    12. Robalino, David & Margolis, David & Rother, Friederike & Newhouse, David & Lundberg, Mattias, 2013. "Youth employment : a human development agenda for the next decade," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 83925, The World Bank.
    13. Grimm, Michael & Paffhausen, Anna Luisa, 2015. "Do interventions targeted at micro-entrepreneurs and small and medium-sized firms create jobs? A systematic review of the evidence for low and middle income countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 67-85.
    14. Cho, Yoonyoung. & Kalomba, Davie. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq. & Orozco, Víctor., 2015. "Differences in the effects of vocational training on men and women : constraints on women and drop-out behaviour," ILO Working Papers 994874103402676, International Labour Organization.
    15. Andrews, Colin & Kryeziu, Adea & Seo, Dahye, 2014. "World Bank support for social safety nets 2007-2013 : a review of financing, knowledge services, and results," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 90187, The World Bank.
    16. Margherita Calderone, 2017. "Are there different spillover effects from cash transfers to men and women? Impacts on investments in education in post-war Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series 093, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Cristina Cirillo & Giorgia Giovannetti, 2018. "Do Cash Transfers Trigger Investment? Evidence for Peru," Development Working Papers 433, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    18. Macours, Karen & Premand, Patrick & Vakis, Renos, 2012. "Transfers, Diversification and Household Risk Strategies: Experimental evidence with lessons for climate change adaptation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Theodora-Ismene Gizelis & Nana Afua Pierre, 2013. "Gender Equality and Postconflict Reconstruction: What Do We Need to Know in Order to Make Gender Mainstreaming Work?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 601-611, September.
    20. Margherita Calderone, 2017. "Are there different spillover effects from cash transfers to men and women?: Impacts on investments in education in post-war Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-93, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Goedhuys, Micheline & Grimm, Michael & Meysonnat, Aline & Nillesen, Eleonora & Reitmann, Ann-Kristin, 2021. "Measuring Youth Empowerment: An Illustration Using the Example of Tunisia," IZA Discussion Papers 14760, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Ana Luna & Miguel Nuñez-del-Prado & Jose Luján & Luis Mantilla García & Daniel Malca, 2017. "Alternative setup for estimating reliable frequency values in a ripple tank," Working Papers 17-01, Centro de Investigación, Universidad del Pacífico.
    23. Dorfman, Mark & Palacios, Robert, 2012. "World Bank support for pensions and social security," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 70925, The World Bank.
    24. Manuela A. de Paz-Báñez & María José Asensio-Coto & Celia Sánchez-López & María-Teresa Aceytuno, 2020. "Is There Empirical Evidence on How the Implementation of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) Affects Labour Supply? A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-36, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nakasone, Eduardo & Torero, Maximo, 2014. "Soap Operas for for Female Micro Entrepreneur Training," MPRA Paper 61302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Antonia Grohmann & Lukas Menkhoff & Helke Seitz, 2022. "The Effect of Personalized Feedback on Small Enterprises’ Finances in Uganda," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 1197-1227.
    3. Cho, Yoonyoung & Honorati, Maddalena, 2014. "Entrepreneurship programs in developing countries: A meta regression analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 110-130.
    4. Michael Kremer & Jonathan Robinson & Olga Rostapshova, 2014. "Success in Entrepreneurship: Doing the Math," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume II: Human Capital, pages 281-303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cho,Yoonyoung & Kalomba, Davie & Mobarak,Ahmed Mushfiq & Orozco Olvera,Victor Hugo & Cho,Yoonyoung & Kalomba, Davie & Mobarak,Ahmed Mushfiq & Orozco Olvera,Victor Hugo, 2013. "Gender differences in the effects of vocational training : constraints on women and drop-out behavior," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6545, The World Bank.
    6. Michael Grimm & Simon Lange & Jann Lay, 2011. "Credit-constrained in risky activities? The determinants of capital stocks of micro and small firms in Western Africa," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 104, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    7. Karlan, Dean S. & Knight, Ryan & Udry, Christopher R., 2012. "Hoping to Win, Expected to Lose: Theory and Lessons on Micro Enterprise Development," Center Discussion Papers 133405, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    8. Lars Ivar Oppedal Berge & Kjetil Bjorvatn & Bertil Tungodden, 2015. "Human and Financial Capital for Microenterprise Development: Evidence from a Field and Lab Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 707-722, April.
    9. Helke Seitz, 2020. "Subgroup Analysis of Investment Constraints: Evidence from Ugandan Microenterprises," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1920, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Claudia Custodio & Diogo Mendes & Daniel Metzger, 2021. "The impact of financial education of executives on financial practices of medium and large enterprises," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2105, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    11. Chakravarty, Shubha & Lundberg, Mattias & Nikolov, Plamen & Zenker, Juliane, 2019. "Vocational training programs and youth labor market outcomes: Evidence from Nepal," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 71-110.
    12. Eduardo Nakasone & Maximo Torero, 2014. "Soap Operas for Female Micro Entrepreneur Training," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 87916, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. Beaman, Lori & Magruder, Jeremy & Robinson, Jonathan, 2014. "Minding small change among small firms in Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 69-86.
    14. Peter J. Glick & Crystal Huang & Nelly Mejia, 2015. "The Private Sector and Youth Skills and Employment Programs in Low and Middle-Income Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 23260, The World Bank Group.
    15. Lucia Dalla Pellegrina & Giorgio Di Maio & Paolo Landoni & Emanuele Rusinà, 2021. "Money management and entrepreneurial training in microfinance: impact on beneficiaries and institutions," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1049-1085, October.
    16. Pascaline Dupas & Sarah Green & Anthony Keats & Jonathan Robinson, 2014. "Challenges in Banking the Rural Poor: Evidence from Kenya's Western Province," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume III: Modernization and Development, pages 63-101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. María laura Alzúa & Guillermo Cruces & Carolina Lopez, 2016. "Long-Run Effects Of Youth Training Programs: Experimental Evidence From Argentina," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(4), pages 1839-1859, October.
    18. Girum Abebe & Tetsushi Sonobe, 2012. "Management Practices, Self-Selection into Management Training Participation, and Training Effects in the Garment Industry in Ethiopia," GRIPS Discussion Papers 11-23, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    19. Miriam Bruhn & Dean Karlan & Antoinette Schoar, 2018. "The Impact of Consulting Services on Small and Medium Enterprises: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Mexico," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 635-687.
    20. Acevedo, Paloma & Cruces, Guillermo & Gertler, Paul & Martinez, Sebastian, 2020. "How vocational education made women better off but left men behind," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash grant; randomized control trial; credit constraints; psychological and social impacts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.