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Short-Term Price Overreaction: Identification, Testing, Exploitation

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Gil-Alana
  • Alex Plastun
Abstract
This paper examines short-term price reactions after one-day abnormal price changes and whether they create exploitable profit opportunities in various financial markets. A t-test confirms the presence of overreactions and also suggests that there is an “inertia anomaly”, i.e. after an overreaction day prices tend to move in the same direction for some time. A trading robot approach is then used to test two trading strategies aimed at exploiting the detected anomalies to make abnormal profits. The results suggest that a strategy based on counter-movements after overreactions does not generate profits in the FOREX and the commodity markets, but it is profitable in the case of the US stock market. By contrast, a strategy exploiting the “inertia anomaly” produces profits in the case of the FOREX and the commodity markets, but not in the case of the US stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2014. "Short-Term Price Overreaction: Identification, Testing, Exploitation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1423, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1423
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2019. "Long-term price overreactions: are markets inefficient?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 657-680, October.
    2. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "Price effects after one-day abnormal returns and crises in the stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    3. Zhou, Xinxing & Gao, Yan & Wang, Ping & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2022. "Examining the overconfidence and overreaction in China’s carbon markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 472-489.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2019. "Price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(5), pages 1137-1155, August.
    5. Plastun, Alex & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Price effects after one-day abnormal returns in developed and emerging markets: ESG versus traditional indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun & Viktor Oliinyk, 2021. "The frequency of one-day abnormal returns and price fluctuations in the forex," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 401-415, January.
    7. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2016. "Contrarian and Momentum Profits during Periods of High Trading Volume preceded by Stock Prices Shocks," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 378-384.
    8. Ivan Borisov Todorov & Fernando Sánchez Lasheras, 2022. "Forecasting Applied to the Electricity, Energy, Gas and Oil Industries: A Systematic Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-15, October.
    9. Charteris, Ailie & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Feedback trading in retail-dominated assets: Evidence from the gold bullion coin market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Momentum effects in the cryptocurrency market after one-day abnormal returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 251-266, September.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2018. "On the Frequency of Price Overreactions," CESifo Working Paper Series 7011, CESifo.
    12. Ivan Borisov Todorov & Fernando Sánchez Lasheras, 2023. "Stock Price Forecasting of IBEX35 Companies in the Petroleum, Electricity, and Gas Industries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-21, April.
    13. Lee, Namhoon & Choi, Wonseok & Pae, Yuntaek, 2021. "Market efficiency in foreign exchange market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    14. DIMA, Bogdan & DIMA, Ştefana Maria & IOAN, Roxana, 2021. "Remarks on the behaviour of financial market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic. The case of VIX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2021. "Gold and oil prices: abnormal returns, momentum and contrarian effects," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(3), pages 353-368, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient Market Hypothesis; anomaly; overreaction hypothesis; abnormal returns; contrarian strategy; trading strategy; trading robot; t-test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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