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An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data: a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany

Author

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  • Sebastian Klüsener

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract
For studying both individual-level and small-scale contextual influences on the effects of family policies on fertility, Multilevel Event History methods are the state-of-the-art. But in many countries, these methods cannot be applied because the available individual-level data are inadequate. This paper uses an alternative methodological framework that can be of help in these cases. It utilizes small-scale macro data, which is analyzed with Exploratory Data, Cluster, and Spatial Panel Model Analysis techniques. In a case study on the western German city of Bremen, the potential of this approach, as well as its limitations, are investigated. The study analyzes the impact of the parental leave reform of 1986 and the child benefit reform of 1996 on fertility levels in different city quarters (Stadtteile) of Bremen. The results indicate that both family policy reforms had, at least in the short-term, a significant impact on fertility levels. These positive effects were stronger in economically disadvantaged quarters. The findings also suggest that the reforms affected the timing more than the quantum of fertility. With regard to the methodological framework, we can conclude that the Spatial Analysis with small-scale macro data is a useful alternative when there is no individual-level data available for carrying out a Multilevel Event History Analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Klüsener, 2009. "An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data: a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-027
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-027
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
    2. Laura Bernardi & Andreas Klärner & Holger Lippe, 2008. "Job Insecurity and the Timing of Parenthood: A Comparison between Eastern and Western Germany," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 287-313, September.
    3. repec:cai:poeine:pope_202_0331 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ronald Rindfuss & David Guilkey & S. Morgan & Øystein Kravdal & Karen Guzzo, 2007. "Child care availability and first-birth timing in Norway," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 345-372, May.
    5. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    6. Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(10), pages 263-294.
    7. Tomas Kögel, 2004. "Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 45-65, February.
    8. Joop Beer & Ingeborg Deerenberg, 2007. "An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(5), pages 511-528, December.
    9. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bremen; Germany; family policies; fertility trends; methodology; spatial analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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