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Interest rates and house prices in the United States and around the world

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Sutton
  • Dubravko Mihaljek
  • Agnė Subelytė
Abstract
This paper estimates the response of house prices to changes in short- and long-term interest rates in 47 advanced and emerging market economies. We use data that statistical authorities selected as their best house price series, covering almost half a century of quarterly observations for the United States and over 1,000 annual observations for the rest of the sample. We find a surprisingly important role for short-term interest rates as a driver of house prices, especially outside the United States. Our interpretation is that this reflects the importance of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in house price fluctuations, especially in countries where securitisation of home mortgages is less prevalent. In addition, we document substantial inertia in house prices and find that changes in interest rates and other determinants affect house prices gradually rather than on impact. This suggests that modest cuts in policy rates are not likely to rapidly fuel house price increases. Finally, we find that US interest rates seem to affect house prices outside the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Sutton & Dubravko Mihaljek & Agnė Subelytė, 2017. "Interest rates and house prices in the United States and around the world," BIS Working Papers 665, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joël Vonlanthen, 2023. "Interest rates and real estate prices: a panel study," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    3. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris, 2018. "House price convergence: Evidence from Australian cities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 88-90.
    4. Ruben Tarne & Dirk Bezemer, 2023. "ousing affordability in a monetary economy: an agent-based model of the Dutch housing market," IMK Working Paper 222-2023, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2019. "How Relevant are Capital Flows for House Prices in Emerging Economies?," Working Papers 2019-19, Banco de México.
    6. Dieckelmann, Daniel & Hempell, Hannah S. & Jarmulska, Barbara & Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek, 2023. "House prices and ultra-low interest rates: exploring the non-linear nexus," Working Paper Series 2789, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; house prices; monetary policy; bank lending channel; random walk; house price bubble; United States; advanced economies; emerging market economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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