[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1074_16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy and early exit. A model-based evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Burlon

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Gerali

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract
This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of the Eurosystem’s expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) under alternative strategies as regards (i) the unwinding of asset positions accumulated under the APP and (ii) communication of current and future paths of the policy rate (forward guidance). To this purpose, we simulate a New Keynesian model of the euro area. Our results are as follows. First, as the monetary authority brings forward the selling of long-term sovereign bonds, the stimulus from the APP on inflation and economic activity is correspondingly reduced. In particular, if the bonds are sold immediately after purchases end, the impact on inflation is negligible. Second, if the monetary authority communicates that it will hold the policy rate constant for one year instead of two, the APP is less effective, and the inflation increase is halved. Third, the subdued impact of the APP associated with an early exit from the programme delays the return to a standard monetary policy regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2016. "Macroeconomic effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy and early exit. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1074, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1074_16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2016/2016-1074/en_tema_1074.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    2. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    3. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-274, June.
    4. Burlon, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2018. "Non-standard monetary policy, asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-53.
    5. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    6. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    7. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599, Elsevier.
    8. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense [‘Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: some evidence for the United Kingdom’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 598-638.
    10. Han Chen & Vasco Cúrdia & Andrea Ferrero, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 289-315, November.
    11. Carlo Altavilla & Giacomo Carboni & Roberto Motto, 2021. "Asset Purchase Programs and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-48, October.
    12. Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "The Global Economy Model: Theoretical Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 243-284, June.
    13. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    14. Stanley Fischer, 2016. "Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 133-141, July.
    15. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    16. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    17. Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Tobin's Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1015, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Burlon, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2018. "Non-standard monetary policy, asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-53.
    2. Lorenzo Burlon & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through into euro area inflation. An estimated structural model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1192, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. A. Bartocci & L. Burlon & A. Notarpietro & M. Pisani, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures in the Euro Area: The Role of Corporate Bond Purchases," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 97-130, September.
    4. Giri, Federico & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2019. "Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 42-58.
    5. Burlon, Lorenzo & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of an open-ended asset purchase programme," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1144-1159.
    6. Michele Loberto & Francesco Zollino, 2016. "Housing and credit markets in Italy in times of crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1087, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Coenen, Günter & Karadi, Peter & Schmidt, Sebastian & Warne, Anders, 2018. "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB’s micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector," Working Paper Series 2200, European Central Bank.
    8. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2019. "Non-standard monetary policy measures in the new normal," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1251, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Lorenzo Burlon & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2017. "Public investment and monetary policy stance in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1150, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burlon, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2018. "Non-standard monetary policy, asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-53.
    2. A. Bartocci & L. Burlon & A. Notarpietro & M. Pisani, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures in the Euro Area: The Role of Corporate Bond Purchases," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 97-130, September.
    3. Lorenzo Burlon & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2017. "Public investment and monetary policy stance in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1150, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Burlon, Lorenzo & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of an open-ended asset purchase programme," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1144-1159.
    5. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1015, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Bartocci, Anna & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2024. "“Green” fiscal policy measures and nonstandard monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Domestic and international macroeconomic effects of the Eurosystem expanded asset purchase programme," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1036, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Papadopoulou, Niki X., 2020. "On the credit and exchange rate channels of central bank asset purchases in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 502-533.
    9. Mr. Dominic Quint & Mr. Pau Rabanal, 2017. "Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?," IMF Working Papers 2017/085, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2019. "Domestic and International Effects of the Eurosystem Expanded Asset Purchase Programme: A Structural Model-Based Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 315-348, June.
    11. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2019. "Non-standard monetary policy measures in the new normal," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1251, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    13. Kühl, Michael, 2014. "Mitigating financial stress in a bank-financed economy: Equity injections into banks or purchases of assets?," Discussion Papers 19/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Blattner Tobias S. & Swarbrick Jonathan M., 2021. "Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Interbank Market Fragmentation: Lessons from the Crisis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 323-368, January.
    15. Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2016. "Global macroeconomic effects of exiting from unconventional monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1078, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Michael Kühl, 2018. "The Effects of Government Bond Purchases on Leverage Constraints of Banks and Non-Financial Firms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 93-161, September.
    17. Alessandro Ferrari & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2023. "Toward a Green Economy: The Role of the Central Bank’s Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(5), pages 287-340, December.
    18. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Covid-19 Shock and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Monetary Union," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic, pages 233-266, Springer.
    19. Arce, Óscar & Nuño, Galo & Thaler, Dominik & Thomas, Carlos, 2020. "A large central bank balance sheet? Floor vs corridor systems in a New Keynesian environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 350-367.
    20. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2021. "How loose, how tight? A measure of monetary and fiscal stance for the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1536-1556.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; open-economy macroeconomics; non-standard monetary policy; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1074_16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.