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Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Ehrmann
  • Michael Ziegelmeyer
Abstract
Mortgages constitute the largest part of household debt. An essential choice when taking out a mortgage is between fixed-interest-rate mortgages (FRMs) and adjustable-interest-rate mortgages (ARMs). However, so far, no comprehensive cross-country study has analyzed what determines household demand for mortgage types, a task that this paper takes up using new data for the euro area. Our results support the hypothesis of Campbell and Cocco (2003) that the decision is best described as one of household risk management: income volatility reduces the take-out of ARMs, while increasing duration and relative size of the mortgages increase it. Controlling for other supply factors through country fixed effects, loan pricing also matters, as expected, with ARMs becoming more attractive when yield spreads rise. The paper also conducts a simulation exercise to identify how the easing of monetary policy during the financial crisis affected mortgage holders. It shows that the resulting reduction in mortgage rates produced a substantial decline in debt burdens among mortgage-holding households, especially in countries where households have higher debt burdens and a larger share of ARMs, as well as for some disadvantaged groups of households, such as those with low income.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ehrmann & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area," BCL working papers 84, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp084
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    File URL: https://www.bcl.lu/fr/Recherche/publications/cahiers_etudes/84/BCLWP084.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Du Caju & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2015. "Unemployment Risk and Over-indebtedness A Micro-econometric Perspective," Working Papers CEB 15-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Michael Richter, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects on Financial Cycles in a Monetary Union with Diverging Country Preferences for Variable- and Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 7, pages 19-36, February.
    3. Martin Brown & Benjamin Suman Guin, 2015. "The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(II), pages 3-37, June.
    4. Holzmann, Robert & Ayuso, Mercedes & Alaminos, Estefanía & Bravo, Jorge Miguel, 2019. "Life Cycle Saving and Dissaving Revisited across Three-Tiered Income Groups: Starting Hypotheses, Refinement through Literature Review, and Ideas for Empirical Testing," IZA Discussion Papers 12655, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Kim, Young Il & Kim, Hyoung Chan & Yoo, Joo Hee, 2016. "Household Over-indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability in Korea: Evidence from Credit Bureau Data," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 38(3), pages 53-77.
    6. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    7. Ampudia, Miguel & Pavlickova, Akmaral & Slacalek, Jiri & Vogel, Edgar, 2016. "Household heterogeneity in the euro area since the onset of the Great Recession," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 181-197.
    8. Dr. Petra Gerlach & Seán Lyons, 2015. "Mortgage arrears in Europe: The impact of monetary and macroprudential policies," Working Papers 2015-05, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Bouyon, Sylvain, 2017. "Recent Trends and Developments in European Mortgage Markets," ECRI Papers 12596, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    10. Du Caju, Philip & Rycx, François & Tojerow, Ilan, 2016. "Unemployment risk and over-indebtedness," Working Paper Series 1908, European Central Bank.
    11. Devine, Kenneth & McCarthy, Yvonne & O’Toole, Conor, 2023. "The role of borrower expectations in mortgage choice," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    12. Mario Holzner & Stefan Jestl, 2015. "Of proprietors and proletarians," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 141, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    13. Dancsik, Bálint, 2017. "Számít-e a devizahiteles múlt?. A lakáshitelkamatok rögzítéséről szóló döntés vizsgálata mikroszintű adatokon [Analysing the decision of fixing housing loan interest rates on micro-level data: does," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1030-1055.
    14. Ludmila Fadejeva & Janis Lapins & Liva Zorgenfreija, 2018. "Results of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey in Latvia," Discussion Papers 2018/01, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Margarita Rubio & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Lithuania in the Euro Area: Monetary Transmission and Macroprudential Policies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 29-49, January.
    16. Stefan Jestl & Mario Holzner & Sebastian Leitner, 2015. "Immobilienvermögen und Hypothekarverschuldung der Haushalte im Europavergleich," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 41(1), pages 49-70.
    17. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2016. "Cost of funds indexed mortgage contracts with government-backed catastrophic insurance (COFI-Cats): A realistic alternative to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 109-130.
    18. Bálint Dancsik & Nedim Márton El-Meouch, 2019. "Who Can Refinance? The Possibilities and Limitations of Market-based Refinancing in the Case of Mortgages with a Variable Interest Rate," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 18(2), pages 5-30.
    19. Rubio, Margarita & Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2018. "Macroeconomic and financial stability in a monetary union: The case of Lithuania," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 75-90.
    20. Christoph Basten & Benjamin Guin & Cathérine Tahmee Koch, 2017. "How Do Banks and Households Manage Interest Rate Risk? Evidence from the Swiss Mortgage Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 6649, CESifo.
    21. Brown, Martin & Guin, Benjamin, 2015. "The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data," Working Papers on Finance 1509, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    22. Dungey, Mardi & Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Yanotti, María B., 2018. "Endogeneity in household mortgage choice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 30-44.
    23. Pedro Gete & Michael Reher, 2016. "Two Extensive Margins of Credit and Loan‐to‐Value Policies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1397-1438, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Length: 39 pages;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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