[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bbv/wpaper/1212.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The financial impact of Spanish pension reform. A quick estimate

Author

Listed:
  • Angel De la Fuente
  • Rafael Domenech
Abstract
In this paper we present a preliminary estimate of the financial impact of the recent reform of the Spanish pension system. After updating the projections of pension expenditure constructed in de la Fuente and Domenech (2010) for the period 2008-60, we analyze the impact on this variable of raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 years, extending from 15 to 25 years the period over which wages are averaged to calculate the starting pension and increasing from 35 to 37 the number of contribution years required to obtain a \"full pension.\" Conditional on a series of assumptions about the evolution of employment, productivity and demographics, our estimates suggest that these measures will reduce pension expenditure by up to 1.4 percentage points of GDP once the reforms have been fully implemented in 2027, thereby stabilizing pension expenditure at a bit over 9% of GDP during the transition period and preventing the emergence of a structural deficit in the system before the end of the next decade. On the other hand, the existing uncertainty about the future evolution of the relevant variables suggests that it would be desirable to bring forward in time the introduction of the periodic evaluation of the system (the so-called sustainability factor) so as to have in place a mechanism that can be used to modulate the rhythm and scope of the reform if the system\'s financial situation requires it before the end of the transitional period.

Suggested Citation

  • Angel De la Fuente & Rafael Domenech, 2012. "The financial impact of Spanish pension reform. A quick estimate," Working Papers 1212, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/migrados/WP_1212_tcm348-338129.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel De la Fuente & Jose Emilio Bosca, 2011. "Gasto educativo por regiones y niveles en 2005," Working Papers 1119, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Alicia García-Herrero & KC Fung & Nathalie Aminian & Francis Ng, 2012. "Trade in services: East Asian and Latin American Experiences," Working Papers 1204, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angel de la Fuente, 2015. "A Simple Model of Aggregate Pension Expenditure," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 212(1), pages 13-50, March.
    2. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2017. "The future of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 233-265, April.
    3. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2016. "From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 461-490, November.
    4. Javier Diaz Gimenez & Javier Diaz Jimenez, 2015. "Spanish Minimum Pensions after the 2013 Pension Reform," ThE Papers 15/04, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    5. Alfonso Sánchez-Martin & J. García-Pérez & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2014. "Delaying the Normal and Early Retirement Ages in Spain: Behavioural and Welfare Consequences for Employed and Unemployed Workers," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 341-375, December.
    6. Manuel García & Juan M. Nave, 2018. "Impacto en las prestaciones de jubilación de la reforma del sistema público de pensiones español," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 224(1), pages 113-137, March.
    7. Santacruz Cano, Javier & Bernal Alonso, Miguel Ángel, 2015. "Efficiency in Pension Funds Management in a QE Environment: The Case of Spain/Eficiencia en la gestión de los fondos de pensiones en un entorno de QE: El caso de España," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 687-700, Septiembr.
    8. Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2020. "The fiscal and welfare consequences of the price indexation of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 163-184, April.
    9. Alassane Diaw, 2017. "Retirement Preparedness in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 78-86.
    10. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2015. "Challenges for Spanish Pensions in the Early 21st Century," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages 20-24, August.
    11. Oihana Aristondo, 2018. "Poverty Decomposition in Incidence, Intensity and Inequality. A Review," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 225(2), pages 109-130, June.
    12. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2013. "Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 204(1), pages 9-44, March.
    13. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2015. "Challenges for Spanish Pensions in the Early 21st Century," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(2), pages 20-24, 08.
    14. Sabina Hod?i? & Lucija Rogi? Duman?i? & Emira Be?i?, 2019. "Financial stability of pension system in the European Union member states," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912130, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    15. repec:ces:ifodic:v:13:y:2015:i:2:p:19166291 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    2. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    3. Juan Ordaz Diaz & Adolfo Albo, 2011. "Migracion mexicana altamente calificada en Estados Unidos y transferencia de Mexico a Estados Unidos a traves del gasto en la educacion de los migrant," Working Papers 1125, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Ye, Guangliang & Deng, Guoying & Li, Zhigang, 2014. "Mortgage rate and choice of mortgage length: A quasi-experimental evidence from Chinese transaction-level data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 96-103.
    5. Enestor Dos Santos & Diego Torres Torres & David Tuesta, 2011. "A review of recent infrastructure investment in Latin America and the role of private pension funds," Working Papers 1137, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    6. Enestor Dos Santos, 2011. "Brazil on the global finance map: an analysis of the development of the Brazilian capital market," Working Papers 1135, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    7. Zhigang Li & Mingqin Wu, 2013. "Estimating The Incidences Of The Recent Pension Reform In China: Evidence From 100,000 Manufacturers," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 332-344, April.
    8. Javier Alonso & Claudia Llanes Valenzuela & David Tuesta & Miguel Angel Caballero & Li Hui & Yun Cao, 2011. "Posibles consecuencias de la evolucion de las pensiones privadas en China," Working Papers 1134, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    9. Maximo Camacho & Agustin Garcia-Serrador, 2011. "The Euro-Sting revisited: PMI versus ESI to obtain euro area GDP forecasts," Working Papers 1120, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    10. Correa-López Mónica & de Blas Beatriz, 2012. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-52, November.
    11. Enestor Dos Santos & Diego Torres Torres & David Tuesta, 2011. "Una revision de los avances en la inversion en infraestructura en Latinoamerica y el papel de los fondos de pensiones privados," Working Papers 1136, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Saifeddine Chaibi & Jose Felix Izquierdo & Felix Lores & Ana Rubio & Jaime Zurita, 2013. "Some international trends in the regulation of mortgage markets: Implications for Spain," Working Papers 1317, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    13. Li, Zhigang & Yu, Xiaohua & Zeng, Yinchu & Holst, Rainer, 2012. "Estimating transport costs and trade barriers in China: Direct evidence from Chinese agricultural traders," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1003-1010.
    14. Javier Alonso & Miguel Angel Caballero & Li Hui & Claudia Llanes Valenzuela & David Tuesta & Yuwei Hu & Yun Cao, 2011. "Potential outcomes of private pension developments in China," Working Papers 1133, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    15. Adolfo Albo & Juan Ordaz Diaz, 2011. "Highly qualified Mexican immigrants in the U.S," Working Papers 1126, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Juan Ramon Garcia, 2011. "Youth unemployment in Spain: causes and solutions," Working Papers 1131, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spain; retirement age; pension reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSCAR DE LAS PENAS SANCHEZ-CARO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ebbvaes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.