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The Space of Gravity: Spatial Filtering Estimation of a Gravity Model for Bilateral Trade

Author

Listed:
  • R. Patuelli
  • G. J. Linders
  • R. Metulini
  • D. A. Griffith
Abstract
Bilateral trade flows traditionally have been analysed by means of the spatial interaction gravity model. Still, (auto)correlation of trade flows has only recently received attention in the literature. This paper takes up this thread of emerging literature, and shows that spatial filtering (SF) techniques can take into account the autocorrelation in trade flows. Furthermore, we show that the use of origin and destination specific spatial filters goes a long way in correcting for omitted variable bias in an otherwise standard empirical gravity equation. For a cross-section of bilateral trade flows, we compare an SF approach to two benchmark specifications that are consistent with theoretically derived gravity. The results are relevant for a number of reasons. First, we correct for autocorrelation in the residuals. Second, we suggest that the empirical gravity equation can still be considered in applied work, despite the theoretical arguments for its misspecification due to omitted multilateral resistance terms. Third, if we include SF variables, we can still resort to any desired estimator, such as OLS, Poisson or negative binomial regression. Finally, interpreting endogeneity bias as autocorrelation in regressor variables and residuals allows for a more general specification of the gravity equation than the relatively restricted theoretical gravity equation. In particular, we can include additional country-specific push and pull variables, besides GDP (e.g., land area, landlockedness, and per capita GDP). A final analysis provides autocorrelation diagnostics according to different candidate indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Patuelli & G. J. Linders & R. Metulini & D. A. Griffith, 2015. "The Space of Gravity: Spatial Filtering Estimation of a Gravity Model for Bilateral Trade," Working Papers wp1022, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henri L. F. De Groot & Gert‐Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2004. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 103-123, February.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    3. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    4. Tamás Krisztin & Manfred M. Fischer, 2015. "The Gravity Model for International Trade: Specification and Estimation Issues," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 451-470, December.
    5. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
    7. Bas Straathof, 2008. "Gravity with gravitas: comment," CPB Discussion Paper 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo Metulini & Roberto Patuelli & Daniel A. Griffith, 2018. "A Spatial-Filtering Zero-Inflated Approach to the Estimation of the Gravity Model of Trade," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    3. Seok, Jun Ho & Reed, Michael Robert & Saghaian, Sayed, 2016. "The Impact Of Sqf Certification On U.S. Agri-Food Exports," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(3), pages 1-16, July.
    4. Clément Gorin, 2016. "Patterns and determinants of inventors' mobility across European urban areas," Working Papers halshs-01313086, HAL.
    5. Seok, Jun Ho & Saghaian, Sayed & Reed, Michael R., 2018. "The ‘Signaling Effect’ and the impact of high maximum residue limit standards on U.S. vegetable exports," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-159.
    6. Tom Broekel & Pierre-Alexandre Balland & Martijn Burger & Frank Oort, 2014. "Modeling knowledge networks in economic geography: a discussion of four methods," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(2), pages 423-452, September.
    7. Rodolfo Metulini & Paolo Sgrignoli & Stefano Schiavo & Massimo Riccaboni, 2018. "The network of migrants and international trade," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(3), pages 763-787, December.
    8. Cristina Di Stefano & P. Lelio Iapadre & Ilaria Salvati, 2021. "Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-15, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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