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The short-run effects of fiscal adjustment in OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Georgios Georgantas

    (University of Patras)

  • Maria Kasselaki

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Athanasios Tagkalakis

    (Bank of Greece, University of Patras and Hellenic Parliamentary Budget Office)

Abstract
This paper investigates the short-run effects of fiscal adjustment shocks on macroeconomic aggregates in a group of 24 OECD economies from 1990 to 2019. The analysis controls for recession and expansions, high and low public debt ratio, tight and loose monetary conditions, and trade openness. We find no evidence of expansionary fiscal consolidations or non-Keynesian effects. The empirical findings suggest that unanticipated fiscal consolidation shocks lead to lower real GDP, private consumption, investment, and inflation and to higher unemployment rate. The effects are more pronounced in bad economic times, high debt countries, closed economies and when monetary conditions are tight. Consequently, in these cases, the decline of the public debt ratio is more subdued.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Georgantas & Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2022. "The short-run effects of fiscal adjustment in OECD countries," Working Papers 308, Bank of Greece.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:308
    DOI: 10.52903/wp2022308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; public debt; bad and good times; monetary conditions; openness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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