[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/0998.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bond supply, price drifts and liquidity provision before central bank announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Lou, Dong

    (London School of Economics)

  • Pinter, Gabor

    (Bank of England)

  • Uslu, Semih

    (John Hopkins Carey)

Abstract
We document that UK government bond yields systematically rise in a two-day window before Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, which we refer to as pre-MPC windows. The effect concentrates on pre-MPC windows that coincide with new issuance of government bonds. Decomposing the effect into an expected short-rate and a risk premium component, we find that the majority of the yield drift is attributed to increases in risk premia. These effects are present in the US as well. Using UK transaction-level data and analysing trading activity after primary issuances, we find that the dealer sector sells significantly more to the client sector during pre-MPC windows, consistent with dealers’ limited risk-bearing capacity. Importantly, we find significant changes in the composition of liquidity providers: hedge funds buy a large share of the issue outside pre-MPC windows, but they shy away from liquidity provision in pre-MPC windows, being replaced by less speculative investors such as foreign government entities and pension funds. We propose a theoretical model to rationalise the change in the composition of liquidity providers before high-informational events, which can also explain the price drift observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lou, Dong & Pinter, Gabor & Uslu, Semih, 2022. "Bond supply, price drifts and liquidity provision before central bank announcements," Bank of England working papers 998, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0998
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2022/bond-supply-price-drifts-and-liquidity-provision-before-central-bank-announcements.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barria, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy announcements; price drift; bond supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0998. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.