[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bno/worpap/2019_17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Saving and Employment Effects of Higher Job Loss Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Juelsrud, Ragnar E.
  • Wold, Ella Getz
Abstract
In this paper we use Norwegian tax data and a novel natural experiment to isolate the impact of job loss risk on saving behavior. We find that a one percentage point increase in job loss risk increases liquid savings by roughly 1.2 - 2.0 percent. Further, we show that employment falls in non-tradable industries not directly affected by the shock, also after controlling for intersectoral linkages and lower demand from affected industries, consistent with the household demand channel of recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2019. "The Saving and Employment Effects of Higher Job Loss Risk," Working Paper 2019/17, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2019_17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2652985
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christoph Basten & Andreas Fagereng & Kjetil Telle, 2016. "Saving and Portfolio Allocation Before and After Job Loss," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 293-324, March.
    2. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01313771 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Harmenberg, Karl & Öberg, Erik, 2021. "Consumption dynamics under time-varying unemployment risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 350-365.
    4. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    5. Edouard Challe & Julien Matheron & Xavier Ragot & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramirez, 2017. "Precautionary saving and aggregate demand," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 435-478, July.
    6. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    7. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    8. Browning, Martin & Crossley, Thomas F., 2001. "Unemployment insurance benefit levels and consumption changes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 1-23, April.
    9. Nathaniel G. Hilger, 2016. "Parental Job Loss and Children's Long-Term Outcomes: Evidence from 7 Million Fathers' Layoffs," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 247-283, July.
    10. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
    11. Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2009. "Uncertain Times, uncertain measures," Working Papers tecipa-352, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Precautionary Saving Over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 135-164, February.
    13. Vegard Høghaug Larsen, 2021. "Components Of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 769-788, May.
    14. Kobayashi Keiichiro & Nutahara Kengo, 2010. "Nominal Rigidities, News-Driven Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, September.
    15. Christian Bayer & Ralph Luetticke & Lien Pham‐Dao & Volker Tjaden, 2019. "Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 255-290, January.
    16. Henry S. Farber, 2015. "Job Loss in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," Working Papers 589, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    17. Morten O Ravn & Vincent Sterk, 2021. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations with HANK & SAM: an Analytical Approach," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1162-1202.
    18. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    19. Raj Chetty & Adam Szeidl, 2007. "Consumption Commitments and Risk Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 831-877.
    20. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    21. Morten O Ravn & Vincent Sterk, 0. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations with HANK & SAM: an Analytical Approach," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1162-1202.
    22. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    23. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/54k1p7hdq38odb1k39k1rdm8di is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2197-2223, November.
    26. Ravn, Morten O. & Sterk, Vincent, 2017. "Job uncertainty and deep recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 125-141.
    27. Farber, Henry S, 2015. "Job Loss in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 9069, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1998. "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 449-453, May.
    29. Christopher D. Carroll & Wendy E. Dunn, 1997. "Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 165-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. repec:fth:jonhop:386 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Tokic, Damir, 2015. "The 2014 oil bust: Causes and consequences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 162-169.
    32. Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
    33. Erik Öberg & Karl Harmenberg, 2016. "Durable Expenditure Dynamics under Time-Varying Income Risk," 2016 Meeting Papers 672, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    34. Mitman, Kurt & Rabinovich, Stanislav, 2015. "Optimal unemployment insurance in an equilibrium business-cycle model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 99-118.
    35. Henry S. Farber, 2015. "Job Loss in the Great Recession and its Aftermath: U.S. Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," NBER Working Papers 21216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2023. "The leverage-liquidity trade-of mortgage regulation," Working Papers 04/2023, Centre for Household Finance and Macroeconomic Research (HOFIMAR), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2021. "The household effects of mortgage regulation," Working Papers No 07/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2023. "The importance of unemployment risk for individual savings," Working Papers 06/2023, Centre for Household Finance and Macroeconomic Research (HOFIMAR), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. OH, Joonseok; ROGANTINI PICCO, Anna, 2019. "Macro uncertainty and unemployment risk," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/02, European University Institute.
    3. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
    5. McKay, Alisdair, 2017. "Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Florin Bilbiie & Xavier Ragot, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 71-95, July.
    7. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    8. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    9. François Le Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2022. "Managing Inequality Over Business Cycles: Optimal Policies With Heterogeneous Agents And Aggregate Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 511-540, February.
    10. Bonciani, Dario & Roye, Björn van, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 200-219.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    14. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    15. Vegard Høghaug Larsen, 2021. "Components Of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 769-788, May.
    16. Christoph Basten & Andreas Fagereng & Kjetil Telle, 2016. "Saving and Portfolio Allocation Before and After Job Loss," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 293-324, March.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-282.
    19. Ambrocio, Gene, 2019. "Measuring household uncertainty in EU countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland.
    20. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 163-178, October.
    21. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precautionary savings; household finance; recessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2019_17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbgovno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.