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The myth of declining competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage

Author

Listed:
  • L'aszl'o Csat'o
  • D'ora Gr'eta Petr'oczy
Abstract
According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA Champions League group stage over the recent decades. Our paper introduces six alternative indices for measuring ex ante and ex post competitive balance in order to explore the robustness of these results. The ex ante measures are based on Elo ratings, while the ex post measures compare the group ranking to reasonable benchmarks. We find no evidence of any trend in the competitive balance of the UEFA Champions League group stage between the 2003/04 and 2023/24 seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • L'aszl'o Csat'o & D'ora Gr'eta Petr'oczy, 2024. "The myth of declining competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage," Papers 2406.19222, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.19222
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.19222
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. László Csató, 2020. "The UEFA Champions League seeding is not strategy-proof since the 2015/16 season," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 161-169, September.
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    5. László Csató, 2024. "Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 119-134, March.
    6. P. Dorian Owen & Caitlin A. Owen, 2022. "Simulation evidence on Herfindahl-Hirschman measures of competitive balance in professional sports leagues," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(2), pages 285-300, March.
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    8. Corona, Francisco & Forrest, David & Tena, J.D. & Wiper, Michael, 2019. "Bayesian forecasting of UEFA Champions League under alternative seeding regimes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 722-732.
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