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Climate change heterogeneity: A new quantitative approach

Author

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  • Maria Dolores Gadea
  • Jesus Gonzalo
Abstract
Climate change is a non-uniform phenomenon. This paper proposes a new quantitative methodology to characterize, measure, and test the existence of climate change heterogeneity. It consists of three steps. First, we introduce a new testable warming typology based on the evolution of the trend of the whole temperature distribution and not only on the average. Second, we define the concepts of warming acceleration and warming amplification in a testable format. And third, we introduce the new testable concept of warming dominance to determine whether region A is suffering a worse warming process than region B. Applying this three-step methodology, we find that Spain and the Globe experience a clear distributional warming process (beyond the standard average) but of different types. In both cases, this process is accelerating over time and asymmetrically amplified. Overall, warming in Spain dominates the Globe in all the quantiles except the lower tail of the global temperature distribution that corresponds to the Arctic region. Our climate change heterogeneity results open the door to the need for a non-uniform causal-effect climate analysis that goes beyond the standard causality in mean as well as for a more efficient design of the mitigation-adaptation policies. In particular, the heterogeneity we find suggests that these policies should contain a common global component and a clear local-regional element. Future climate agreements should take the whole temperature distribution into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Dolores Gadea & Jesus Gonzalo, 2023. "Climate change heterogeneity: A new quantitative approach," Papers 2301.02648, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.02648
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    Cited by:

    1. Liang Chen & Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo & Andrey Ramos, 2023. "Heterogeneous predictive association of CO2 with global warming," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(360), pages 1397-1421, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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