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The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy

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  • Roy Cerqueti
  • Raffaella Coppier
  • Alessandro Girardi
  • Marco Ventura
Abstract
This paper estimates the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions - mainly, the lockdown - on the COVID-19 mortality rate for the case of Italy, the first Western country to impose a national shelter-in-place order. We use a new estimator, the Augmented Synthetic Control Method (ASCM), that overcomes some limits of the standard Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The results are twofold. From a methodological point of view, the ASCM outperforms the SCM in that the latter cannot select a valid donor set, assigning all the weights to only one country (Spain) while placing zero weights to all the remaining. From an empirical point of view, we find strong evidence of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in avoiding losses of human lives in Italy: conservative estimates indicate that for each human life actually lost, in the absence of lockdown there would have been on average other 1.15, the policy saved in total 20,400 human lives.

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  • Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2021. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy," Papers 2101.11901, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2101.11901
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoci, Angelo & Sabatini, Fabio & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Sodini, Mauro, 2022. "Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 22-39.
    2. Sarah Kelley & M. D. R. Evans & Jonathan Kelley, 2023. "Happily Distant or Bitter Medicine? The Impact of Social Distancing Preferences, Behavior, and Emotional Costs on Subjective Wellbeing During the Epidemic," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 115-162, February.
    3. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Sabatini, Fabio, 2022. "Can relief measures nudge compliance in a public health crisis? Evidence from a kinked fiscal policy rule," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 407-428.
    4. Cerqueti, Roy & Tramontana, Fabio & Ventura, Marco, 2022. "The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 97-107.
    5. Girardi, Alessandro & Ventura, Marco, 2023. "The cost of waiting and the death toll in Italy during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Feindouno, Sosso & Arcand, Jean-Louis & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2024. "COVID-19's death transfer to Sub-Saharan Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).

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