[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2005.11500.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quickest Detection of Ecological Regimes for Natural Resource Management

Author

Listed:
  • Neha Deopa
  • Daniele Rinaldo
Abstract
We study the stochastic dynamics of natural resources under the threat of ecological regime shifts. We establish a Pareto optimal framework of regime shift detection under uncertainty that minimizes the delay with which economic agents become aware of the shift. We integrate ecosystem surveillance in the formation of optimal resource extraction policies. We fully solve the case of a profit-maximizing monopolist, study its response to regime shift detection and show the generality of our framework by extending our results to other decision makers and functional forms.We apply our framework to the case of the Cantareira water reservoir in S\~ao Paulo, Brazil, and study the events that led to its depletion and the consequent water supply crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Neha Deopa & Daniele Rinaldo, 2020. "Quickest Detection of Ecological Regimes for Natural Resource Management," Papers 2005.11500, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2005.11500
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.11500
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jianguo Liu, 2014. "Forest Sustainability in China and Implications for a Telecoupled World," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 201417, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Polasky, Stephen & de Zeeuw, Aart & Wagener, Florian, 2011. "Optimal management with potential regime shifts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 229-240, September.
    3. Jose Pizarro & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2018. "The Valuation of Fisheries Rights: A Real Options Approach," NBER Working Papers 25140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert S. Pindyck, 1984. "Uncertainty in the Theory of Renewable Resource Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(2), pages 289-303.
    5. Ren, Bijie & Polasky, Stephen, 2014. "The optimal management of renewable resources under the risk of potential regime shift," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 195-212.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S., 2002. "Optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1677-1697, August.
    7. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Optimal harvesting under resource stock and price uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2461-2485, July.
    8. Sakamoto, Hiroaki, 2014. "Dynamic resource management under the risk of regime shifts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19.
    9. Jianguo Liu, 2014. "Forest Sustainability in China and Implications for a Telecoupled World," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 230-250, January.
    10. Baggio, Michele & Fackler, Paul L., 2016. "Optimal management with reversible regime shifts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 124-136.
    11. Li, Chuan-Zhong & Crépin, Anne-Sophie & Folke,Carl, 2018. "The Economics of Resilience," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 11(4), pages 309-353, August.
    12. Maria Arvaniti & Chandra K. Krishnamurthy & Anne-Sophie Crépin, 2019. "Time-consistent resource management with regime shifts," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/329, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    13. Reed, William J & Clarke, Harry R, 1990. "Harvest Decisions and Asset Valuation for Biological Resources Exhibiting Size-Dependent Stochastic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(1), pages 147-169, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neha Deopa & Daniele Rinaldo, 2024. "Quickest Detection of Ecological Regimes for Natural Resource Management," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(5), pages 1327-1366, May.
    2. Jules Selles, 2018. "Fisheries management: what uncertainties matter?," Working Papers hal-01824238, HAL.
    3. Nkuiya, Bruno & Diekert, Florian, 2023. "Stochastic growth and regime shift risk in renewable resource management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Maria Arvaniti & Chandra K. Krishnamurthy & Anne-Sophie Crépin, 2019. "Time-consistent resource management with regime shifts," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/329, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    5. Can Askan Mavi & Nicolas Quérou, 2020. "Common pool resource management and risk perceptions," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-25, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    6. Sturla F. Kvamsdal, 2022. "Optimal Management of a Renewable Resource Under Multiple Regimes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 81(3), pages 481-499, March.
    7. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Optimal harvesting under resource stock and price uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2461-2485, July.
    8. Bediako, Kwabena & Nkuiya, Bruno, 2022. "Stability of international fisheries agreements under stock growth uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Miller, Steve & Nkuiya, Bruno, 2016. "Coalition formation in fisheries with potential regime shift," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 189-207.
    10. Arvaniti, Maria & Krishnamurthy, Chandra Kiran B. & Crépin, Anne-Sophie, 2023. "Time-consistent renewable resource management with present bias and regime shifts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 479-495.
    11. Jacob LaRiviere & David Kling & James N Sanchirico & Charles Sims & Michael Springborn, 2018. "The Treatment of Uncertainty and Learning in the Economics of Natural Resource and Environmental Management," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 92-112.
    12. Christopher Costello & Bruno Nkuiya & Nicolas Querou, 2017. "Extracting spatial resources under possible regime shift," Working Papers 17-07, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier.
    13. Can Askan Mavi & Nicolas Quérou, 2020. "Common pool resource management and risk perceptions," CEE-M Working Papers hal-03052114, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    14. Baggio, Michele & Fackler, Paul L., 2016. "Optimal management with reversible regime shifts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 124-136.
    15. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    16. George C. Efthimiou & Panos Kalimeris & Spyros Andronopoulos & John G. Bartzis, 2018. "Statistical Projection of Material Intensity: Evidence from the Global Economy and 107 Countries," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(6), pages 1465-1472, December.
    17. Gustav Engström & Johan Gars, 2016. "Climatic Tipping Points and Optimal Fossil-Fuel Use," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 541-571, November.
    18. Adam N. Walker & Hans-Peter Weikard & Andries Richter, 2015. "The Rise and Fall of the Great Fish Pact under Endogenous Risk of Stock Collapse," Working Papers 2015.60, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. James D. A. Millington & Hang Xiong & Steve Peterson & Jeremy Woods, 2017. "Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, August.
    20. Min Gon Chung & Tao Pan & Xintong Zou & Jianguo Liu, 2018. "Complex Interrelationships between Ecosystem Services Supply and Tourism Demand: General Framework and Evidence from the Origin of Three Asian Rivers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2005.11500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.