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Bayesian versus Heuristic-based choice under sleep restriction and suboptimal times of day

Author

Listed:
  • David L. Dickinson
  • Todd McElroy
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of a commonly experienced adverse cognitive state on decision making under uncertainty. Specifically, we administer an at-home sleep restriction protocol combined with random assignment to the time-of-day for decision making. Thus, we induce sleepiness in our subjects via sleep restriction as well as suboptimal time-of-day prior to administration of a Bayesian choice task. The specific task used discriminates between Bayesian choices that coincide with more simple reinforcement heuristic choices (in “Easy” trials) versus those that do not (in “Hard” trials), which is ideal given our underlying hypothesis that sleepy subjects are more likely to use simple heuristics. We first show that both circadian mismatch and sleep restriction significantly increase subjective sleepiness—this documents protocol validity. Our key behavioral results are that sleepy subjects are more likely to make a Bayesian inaccurate decision and more likely to make decisions consistent with a simple reinforcement heuristic, particularly in more cognitively difficult “Hard” trials. Secondary results show that stimulation of subject affect increased used of the simple decision heuristic but, when combined with sleep restriction, increased affect may increase task motivation and improve choice accuracy. These results offer new insights into the likely impact of sleepiness on decision making under uncertainty and highlight the potential negative impact on such cognitive states may have on accurate formation of probability assessments. Key Words:

Suggested Citation

  • David L. Dickinson & Todd McElroy, 2017. "Bayesian versus Heuristic-based choice under sleep restriction and suboptimal times of day," Working Papers 17-07, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:17-07
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    File URL: http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp1707.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian Krajbich & Björn Bartling & Todd Hare & Ernst Fehr, 2015. "Rethinking fast and slow based on a critique of reaction-time reverse inference," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Marco Castillo & David L. Dickinson & Ragan Petrie, 2017. "Sleepiness, choice consistency, and risk preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 82(1), pages 41-73, January.
    3. Sean P. A. Drummond & Gregory G. Brown & J. Christian Gillin & John L. Stricker & Eric C. Wong & Richard B. Buxton, 2000. "Altered brain response to verbal learning following sleep deprivation," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6770), pages 655-657, February.
    4. Dickinson, David L. & McElroy, Todd, 2017. "Sleep restriction and circadian effects on social decisions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 57-71.
    5. repec:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i::p:181-190 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. David M. Grether, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 95(3), pages 537-557.
    7. Anja Achtziger & Carlos Alós-Ferrer, 2014. "Fast or Rational? A Response-Times Study of Bayesian Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 923-938, April.
    8. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2005. "When Optimal Choices Feel Wrong: A Laboratory Study of Bayesian Updating, Complexity, and Affect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1300-1309, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dickinson, David L. & Masclet, David, 2023. "Unethical decision making and sleep restriction: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 484-502.
    2. Todd McElroy & David L. Dickinson & Irwin P. Levin, 2019. "Thinking About Decisions: An Integrative Approach of Person and Task Factors," Working Papers 19-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    3. Dickinson, David L. & Reid, Parker, 2023. "Gambling Habits and Probability Judgements in a Bayesian Task Environment," IZA Discussion Papers 16306, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Castillo, Marco & Dickinson, David L., 2022. "Sleep restriction increases coordination failure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 358-370.
    5. McEvoy, David M. & Bruner, David M. & Dickinson, David L. & Drummond, Sean P.A., 2021. "Sleep restriction and strategy choice in cooperation and coordination games," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    6. David L. Dickinson, 2020. "Deliberation Enhances the Confirmation Bias in Politics," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, November.
    7. David L. Dickinson, 2018. "An exploratory study of how sleep restriction impacts choice in two classic normal form games," Working Papers 18-02, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    8. David L. Dickinson & Eugenio Caleb Garbuio, 2020. "The Influence of Dietary Patterns on Outcomes in a Bayesian Choice Task," Working Papers 21-01, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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