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Stochastic Stability of Endogenous Growth: Theory and Applications

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Abstract
We examine the issue of stability of stochastic endogenous growth. First, stochastic stability concepts are introduced and applied to stochastic linear homogenous differential equations to which several stochastic endogenous growth models reduce. Second, we apply the mathematical theory to two models, starting with the stochastic AK model. It's shown that in this case exponential balanced paths, which characterize optimal trajectories in the absence of uncertainty, are not robust to uncertainty: the economy may almost surely collapse at exponential speed even though productivity is initially arbitrarily high. Finally, we revisit the seminal global diversification endogenous growth model (Obstfeld, 1994): taking into account stochastic stability calls for a redefinition of the mean growth concept, which leads to revisit the established wisdom on the growth effect of global diversification.

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  • Raouf Boucekkine & Patrick Pintus & Benteng Zou, 2015. "Stochastic Stability of Endogenous Growth: Theory and Applications," AMSE Working Papers 1532, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1532
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-1329, December.
    2. Boucekkine, R. & Fabbri, G. & Pintus, P., 2014. "Growth and financial liberalization under capital collateral constraints: The striking case of the stochastic AK model with CARA preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 303-307.
    3. anonymous, 1995. "Does the bouncing ball lead to economic growth?," Regional Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-2,4-6.
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    5. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    6. Robert C. Merton, 1975. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(3), pages 375-393.
    7. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2006. "Almost sure convergence to zero in stochastic growth models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(1), pages 231-237, September.
    8. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2005. "Neoclassical Models of Endogenous Growth: The Effects of Fiscal Policy, Innovation and Fluctuations," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 13-65, Elsevier.
    9. Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997. "Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
    10. Steger, Thomas M., 2005. "Stochastic growth under Wiener and Poisson uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 311-316, March.
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    12. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-744, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raouf Boucekkine & Fabien Prieur & Benteng Zou, 2015. "Symmetric vs Asymmetric Equilibria and Stochastic Stability in a Dynamic Game of Legislative Lobbying," AMSE Working Papers 1531, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jan 2018.
    2. Maxime Menuet, 2019. "Fiscal rule and shock amplification : A stochastic endogenous growth model," Working Papers hal-02153887, HAL.
    3. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick A. Pintus, 2015. "Risk Sharing and Growth in Small-Open Economies," AMSE Working Papers 1537, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    endogenous growth; stochastic growth; stochastic stability; AK model; global diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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