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An Economic Framework for Forecasting Land-Use and Ecosystem Change

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  • Lewis, David J.
Abstract
This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, David J., 2009. "An Economic Framework for Forecasting Land-Use and Ecosystem Change," Staff Papers 92218, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wisagr:92218
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.92218
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Sauveur Ay & Raja Chakir & Julie Le Gallo, 2014. "The effects of scale, space and time on the predictive accuracy of land use models," Working Papers 2014/02, INRA, Economie Publique.
    2. David J. Lewis & Bradford L. Barham & Brian Robinson, 2011. "Are There Spatial Spillovers in the Adoption of Clean Technology? The Case of Organic Dairy Farming," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(2), pages 250-267.
    3. Sandler, Austin M. & Rashford, Benjamin S., 2018. "Misclassification error in satellite imagery data: Implications for empirical land-use models," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 530-537.
    4. Carrión-Flores, Carmen E. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Guci, Ledia, 2018. "An estimator for discrete-choice models with spatial lag dependence using large samples, with an application to land-use conversions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 77-93.
    5. Newburn, David & Ferris, Jeffrey, "undated". "The Effect of Downzoning on Spatial Development Patterns," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170446, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Katharine Sims, 2014. "Do Protected Areas Reduce Forest Fragmentation? A Microlandscapes Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(2), pages 303-333, June.
    7. Villegas, Laura, 2017. "Shady Business: Why do Puerto Rican Coffee Farmers Adopt Conservation Agriculture Practices?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259136, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Raja Chakir & Olivier Parent, 2009. "Determinants of land use changes: A spatial multinomial probit approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 327-344, June.
    9. Kurt Riitters & Karen Schleeweis & Jennifer Costanza, 2020. "Forest Area Change in the Shifting Landscape Mosaic of the Continental United States from 2001 to 2016," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, October.
    10. Villegas, Laura, 2019. "Integrating Econometric Models of Land Use Change with Models of Ecosystem Services and Landscape Simulations to Guide Coastal Management and Planning for Flood Control," EfD Discussion Paper 19-13, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    11. Van Butsic & David J. Lewis & Lindsay Ludwig, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Land Development with Endogenous Zoning," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(3), pages 412-432.
    12. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91, February.

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