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Promoting Global Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction

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  • Ivanic, Maros
  • Martin, Will
Abstract
Constraints on resources, growth in demand, and an apparent slowdown in agricultural productivity raise concerns that food prices may rise substantially over the period to 2050. One key question is how serious would be the impacts of such higher food prices on the poor. Another is how policy responses, such as increased investment into agricultural productivity or price incentives, might affect these outcomes. This paper uses a global general equilibrium model, projections of global growth and a set of microeconomic household models, to project potential implications for incomes, food production and poverty. Our baseline projections involve rising food prices whose direct effect is to increase poverty even after households have adjusted fully by increasing output and decreasing consumption. Higher agricultural productivity resulting from increased investments in research and development could offset these impacts and contribute to poverty reduction, with some regional differences: in Asia, we find that most of poverty reduction would come from real wage increases, while Latin America would benefit mainly from the reduced food prices. Increasing food self-sufficiency in developing countries by raising import barriers would generally increase poverty and hence reduce food security at the household level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2010. "Promoting Global Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction," Conference papers 331944, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331944
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2013. "Essays on Farm Household Decision-Making: Evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints 96azx, Center for Open Science.
    2. Hoekman, Bernard & Martin, Will, 2012. "Reducing distortions in international commodity markets : an agenda for multilateral cooperation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5928, The World Bank.
    3. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Pandey, Sushil & Byerlee, Derek R. & Dawe, David & Dobermann, Achim & Mohanty, Samarendu & Rozelle, (ed.), 2010. "Rice in the Global Economy: Strategic Research and Policy Issues for Food Security," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 164488.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124192, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia?s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Hochman, Gal & Rajagopal, Deepak & Timilsina, Govinda & Zilberman, David, 2011. "The role of inventory adjustments in quantifying factors causing food price inflation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5744, The World Bank.

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