[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/hwwadp/26334.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ost-West-Migrations-Potential: Wie Gross Ist Es?

Author

Listed:
  • Straubhaar, Thomas
Abstract
Wie viele Menschen aus den mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern (MOEL) werden von dem mit dem EU-Beitritt verbundenen Recht auf Freizügigkeit Gebrauch machen und nach Westen in die "alten" EU-Länder wandern? Die vorgestellten Simulationen ergeben eine Bandbreite für das Ost-West-Migrationspotential in der Grössenordnung von brutto jährlich 0,2% bis 0,4% der mittel- und osteuropäischen Bevölkerung, die bei einer Nettobetrachtung (unter Einbezug der Rückwanderungen) auf rund 0,1% der Bevölkerung schmilzt. Hochgerechnet auf eine erste EU-Erweiterungswelle, ergibt sich für die MOEL-8 (Slowenien, Tschechien, Ungarn, Slowakei, Polen, Estland, Litauen, Lettland) ein Ost-West-Migrations-potential, das in 15 Jahren brutto etwa 3%-4% und netto etwa die Hälfte, nämlich 1½%-2% der Bevölkerung der MOEL-8 erreicht. Dies sind rund 3 Millionen Menschen (brutto) bzw. 1-1½ Millionen Menschen (netto). Anders herum gesehen, entsprechen diese drei Millionen Menschen gerade einmal 0,8 % der EU-Bevölkerung. Mit Blick auf die zu erwartende Schrumpfung der Bevölkerung in den heutigen EU-15 Ländern und dem damit einhergehenden Alterungsprozess dürften diese Zuwanderungsbewegungen kaum negativ ins Gewicht fallen. Von einer "Völkerwanderung" kann also keine Rede sein! How many people from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) will go West making use of the free movement of people after the EU East enlargement? An extrapolation of the empirical experience of the EU South enlargement shows that the emigration potential might reach a corridor between 0.2% to 0.4% of total CEEC-population per year. Annual net migraton (including return migration) might be about 0.1% of total CEEC-population. If we assume that in a first wave 8 countries from CEEC will become EU members (i.e. Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia), the East-West migration potential will be about 3%-4% (gross) and 1½%-2% (net) of the total CEEC-population within the first 15 years after accession. This is about 3 million people (gross) resp. 1 to 1.5 million people (net) or about 0.8% of the total EU population. Therefore, fears of "mass migration" seem highly exaggerated. Muchmore, with regard to the decline of the EU population and the ageing of the society the expected East-West-migration potentials will generate rather positive consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Straubhaar, Thomas, 2001. "Ost-West-Migrations-Potential: Wie Gross Ist Es?," Discussion Paper Series 26334, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26334
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.26334
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/26334/files/dp010137.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.26334?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ralph Rotte & Michael Vogler, 2000. "The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 485-508.
    2. Ewald Walterskirchen & Raimund Dietz, 1998. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf den österreichischen Arbeitsmarkt," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 2846.
    3. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    4. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2001. "Eastern Enlargement and EU Labour Markets," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 49-68, January.
    5. Merkel, Wolfgang, 1990. "Vom Ende der Diktaturen zum Binnenmarkt 1993: Griechenland, Portugal und Spanien auf dem Weg zurück nach Europa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue 51, pages 3-14.
    6. Philip L. Martin, 1993. "Trade and Migration: NAFTA and Agriculture," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa38, January.
    7. Fritz Franzmeyer & Herbert Brücker, 1997. "Europäische Union: Osterweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 64(5), pages 89-96.
    8. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    9. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lundborg, Per, 2006. "EU enlargement, migration and labour market institutions," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 24-34.
    2. Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2006. "Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 35-56.
    3. Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Martin Werding, 2004. "EU-Osterweiterung und Zuwanderung nach Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages .16-26, April.
    4. Bruder, Jana, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    5. Frohberg, Klaus & Weber, Gerald, 2002. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung im Agrarbereich," IAMO Discussion Papers 42, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    6. Michael Knogler & Volkhart Vincentz, 2005. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf die Arbeitsmärkte der neuen Mitgliedstaaten und der EU-15, insbesondere Deutschland," Working Papers 257, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    7. Norbert Berthold & Michael Neumann & Gerd Andres, 2006. "Sollte an den Übergangsbestimmungen zur Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit festgehalten werden?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(05), pages 03-10, March.
    8. Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Martin Werding, 2004. "EU-Osterweiterung und Zuwanderung nach Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 16-26, 04.
    9. Andrea Grabmayer & Andrea Hartmann & Maria Thalhammer, 2009. "Labour Mobility within the EU in the Context of Enlargement and the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 35641.
    10. Marcus Dittrich & Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Gunther Markwardt & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Marcel Thum, 2004. "Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen : Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ; Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, May.
    11. Lippert, Inge, 2006. "Niedriglohnstrategien im Hochlohnsektor: Öffnung des Arbeitsmarktes und Beschäftigung von MOE-Arbeitskräften in der Metall- und Elektroindustrie," Arbeitspapiere 129, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    12. Foders, Federico, 2004. "Zuwanderungspolitik in Europa: Begrenzung, Steuerung oder Förderung der Migration?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3261, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. David Hofman, 2010. "Mitigating the Impact of Natural Disasters on Public Finance," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(2), pages 36-42, July.
    14. Dickmann, Nicola, 2004. "Ein demographisches Porträt der osteuropäischen Beitrittsländer," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 21-26.
    15. Milan Palát, 2013. "International migration and unemployment in established member countries of the European Union," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(7), pages 2603-2610.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Straubhaar Thomas, 2002. "Ost-West-Migrationspotenzial: Wie groß ist es? / East-West-Migration Potential: How many will go West?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(1), pages 22-41, February.
    2. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ali Mansoor & Bryce Quillin, 2007. "Migration and Remittances : Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6920.
    4. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    5. Peter Huber, 2001. "Regionale Arbeitsmarktwirkungen der Ostintegration," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(11), pages 667-676, November.
    6. Ilse Ruyssen & Gerdie Everaert & Glenn Rayp, 2014. "Determinants and dynamics of migration to OECD countries in a three-dimensional panel framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 175-197, February.
    7. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement," IZA Discussion Papers 1600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.
    9. Axel Heitmueller, 2005. "Unemployment benefits, risk aversion, and migration incentives," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 93-112, January.
    10. Christoph M. Schmidt & Michael Fertig, 2002. "Mobility within Europe – The Attitudes of European Youngsters," RWI Discussion Papers 0001, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    11. repec:zbw:rwidps:0001 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2016. "The European crisis and migration to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 61-72.
    13. Stephen Drinkwater, 2003. "Go West? Assessing the willingness to move from Central and Eastern European Countries," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0503, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    14. de Arce, Rafael & Mahia, Ramon, 2008. "Determinants of Bilateral Immigration Flows Between The European Union and some Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey," MPRA Paper 14547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    17. Bruder, Jana, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    18. Michael Fertig, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Integration on Employment – An Assessment in the Context of EU-Enlargement," RWI Discussion Papers 0007, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    19. Fertig, Michael, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Integration on Employment - An Assessment in the Context of EU-Enlargement," RWI Discussion Papers 7, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    20. repec:zbw:rwidps:0007 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Christoph M. Schmidt, 2002. "Sozialstaat und Migration: empirische Evidenz und wirtschaftspolitische Implikationen für Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 173-186.
    22. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor and Human Capital;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hwwaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.