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Assessment of Simulation Behavior of Different Mathematical Programming Approaches

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  • Gocht, Alexander
Abstract
This paper investigates the simulation behaviour of different PMP methods being developed in the past. About 800 of identical farms for eight years from the German FADN 1 were used to aggregate 45 farm groups. The aggregated farms were calibrated for 1996/97 and the observed prices, direct payments and yields for 2002/03 were applied. The ex-post simulation results underline that the simulation behaviour is mainly controlled by the considered PMP methodology. Even the Maximum Entropy approach proposed by Paris and Howitt (1998) for one observation on base year allocation did not improve the findings. In addition first experiences with an alternative model to PMP where the Q matrix is recovered using multiple observation proposed by Heckelei and Wolff (2003) are illustrated for one particular farm.

Suggested Citation

  • Gocht, Alexander, 2005. "Assessment of Simulation Behavior of Different Mathematical Programming Approaches," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 232598, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae89:232598
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.232598
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Heckelei & Hendrik Wolff, 2003. "Estimation of constrained optimisation models for agricultural supply analysis based on generalised maximum entropy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(1), pages 27-50, March.
    2. Heckelei, Thomas & Britz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Positive Mathematical Programming with Multiple Data Points: A Cross-Sectional Estimation Procedure," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 57.
    3. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 329-342.
    4. Howitt, Richard E. & Mean, Phillippe, 1983. "A Positive Approach to Microeconomic Programming Models," Working Papers 225710, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Quirino Paris, 2001. "Symmetric Positive Equilibrium Problem: A Framework for Rationalizing Economic Behavior with Limited Information," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1049-1061.
    7. Quirino Paris & Richard E. Howitt, 1998. "An Analysis of Ill-Posed Production Problems Using Maximum Entropy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 124-138.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blanco, Maria & Cortignani, Raffaele & Severini, Simone, 2008. "Evaluating Changes in Cropping Patterns due to the 2003 CAP Reform. An Ex-post Analysis of Different PMP Approaches Considering New Activities," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6674, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Mack, Gabriele & Ferjani, Ali & Kranzlein, Tim & Mann, Stefan, 2007. "How Can The Energy Use In Swiss Agriculture Be Assessed In Economic And Ecological Terms?," 47th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 26-28, 2007 7599, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    3. Mack, Gabriele & Mohring, Anke & Zimmermann, Albert & Gennaio, Maria-Pia & Mann, Stefan & Ferjani, Ali, 2011. "Farm Entry Policy and Its Impact on Structural Change Analysed by and Agent-based Sector Model," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114374, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Mack, G. & Schaak, D. & Mann, S., 2006. "Die Schweiz in der EU? Modellberechnungen zu den Konsequenzen einer Mitgliedschaft für den Schweizerischen Agrarsektor," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 41, March.
    5. Ali Ferjani & Albert Zimmermann, 2013. "Modelling structural-change-related shifts in labour input in the agent-based sector model SWISSland," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 6(1), pages 177-200.
    6. Mack, G. & Ferjani, A. & Kränzlein, T. & Mann, S., 2008. "Wie ist der Energieinput der Schweizer Landwirtschaft aus ökonomischer und ökologischer Sicht zu beurteilen?," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 43, March.
    7. Cortignani, Raffaele & Severini, Simone, 2010. "The impact of reforming the Common Agricultural Policy on the sustainability of the irrigated area of Central Italy. An empirical assessment by means of a Positive Mathematical Programming model," 120th Seminar, September 2-4, 2010, Chania, Crete 109318, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Barkaoui, Ahmed, 2008. "Utilization Of Relative Land Allocation In The Calibration Of Agriculture Supply Models By The Pmp Approach," 109th Seminar, November 20-21, 2008, Viterbo, Italy 44859, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Arfini, Filippo & Donati, Michele & Marongiu, Sonia & Cesaro, Luca, 2012. "Farm production costs estimation trough PMP Models: an application in three Italian Regions," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124117, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    10. Christian Schader & Jürn Sanders & Thomas Nemecek & Nic Lampkin & Matthias Stolze, 2008. "A Modelling Approach for Evaluating Agri-Environmental Policies at Sector Level," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 1(1), pages 93-132.
    11. Mack, Gabriele & Ferjani, Ali & Mohring, Anke & Zimmerman, Albert & Mann, Stefan, 2015. "How did farmers act? An ex-post validation of normative and positive mathematical programming for an agent-based sector model," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212201, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Mack, Gabriele & Mann, Stefan, 2008. "Defining elasticities for PMP models by estimating marginal cost functions based on FADN Data - the case of Swiss dairy production," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6694, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Lee, Hwarang & Eom, Jiyong & Cho, Cheolhung & Koo, Yoonmo, 2019. "A bottom-up model of industrial energy system with positive mathematical programming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 679-690.
    14. Anke Möhring & Gabriele Mack & Albert Zimmermann & Maria Pia Gennaio & Stefan Mann & Ali Ferjani, 2011. "Modellierung von Hofübernahmeund Hofaufgabeentscheidungen in agentenbasierten Modellen," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 4(1), pages 163-188.

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