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Impact of Climate Change on Global Agricultural Markets under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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  • Dumortier, Jerome
  • Carriquiry, Miguel A.
  • Elobeid, Amani E.
Abstract
This analysis quantifies changesin global agricultural markets for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat due to yield changes triggered by climate change. The scenarios include four representative concentration pathways (RCP), five global climate models, three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) capturing differences in population levels and economic growth, and enhanced CO2‐fertilization. Yield projections incorporate the influence of SSPs on nitrogen application and agricultural technology. Depending on the SSP and comparing the RCP8.5 ensemble yields (with CO2‐fertilization) to a no climate change scenario in 2050, price increases for maize (61.3%–80.9%), soybeans (36.7%–51.7%), and wheat (5.4%–11.1%) are observed. Large wheat producers in temperate regions expand wheat production under climate change. Rice benefits from CO2 fertilization resulting in a relatively uniform price decrease across scenarios of 19.5%–19.9%. Cropland expansion between 2015 and 2050 is lowest for the high economic growth scenario. Depending on the crop and region, there are significant reductions in production especially for maize. Absolute changes in trade patterns are most pronounced for wheat and least for rice. Using trade as a means to dampen the negative welfare effects of climate change will be important and so is economic growth.
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  • Dumortier, Jerome & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Elobeid, Amani E., 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Global Agricultural Markets under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304390, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea20:304390
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.304390
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    6. Ölkers, Tim & Liu, Shuang & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2023. "A typology of Malian farmers and their credit repayment performance - An unsupervised machine learning approach," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334547, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    7. Lucres Imelda Ke-Tindagbeme Dossa & Muhammad Khalid Bashir & Sarfraz Hassan & Khalid Mushtaq, 2023. "Modeling The Effects of Climate Change on Food Production in Ivory Coast: Evidence from ARDL Approach," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 132-145.

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