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Conflict, Food Price Shocks, and Food Insecurity: The experience of Afghan households

Author

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  • D'Souza, Anna
  • Jolliffe, Dean
Abstract
Using nationally-representative household survey data and confidential geo-coded data on violence, we examine the relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Afghanistan. Spatial mappings of the raw data reveal large variations in levels of food insecurity and conflict across the country; surprisingly, high conflict provinces are not the most food insecure. Using a simple bivariate regression model of conflict (violent incidents and persons killed or injured) on food security (calorie intake and the real value of food consumed), we find mixed associations. But once we move to a multivariate framework, accounting for household characteristics and key commodity prices, we find robust evidence that in Afghanistan levels of conflict and food security are negatively correlated. We also find that households in provinces with higher levels of conflict experience muted declines in food security due to staple food price increases relative to households in provinces with lower levels of conflict, perhaps because the former are more disconnected from markets. Gaining a better understanding of linkages between conflict and food insecurity and knowing their spatial distributions can serve to inform policymakers interested in targeting scarce resources to vulnerable populations, for example, through the placement of strategic grain reserves or targeted food assistance programs.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Souza, Anna & Jolliffe, Dean, 2012. "Conflict, Food Price Shocks, and Food Insecurity: The experience of Afghan households," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 123323, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:123323
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.123323
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna D'Souza & Dean Jolliffe, 2012. "Rising Food Prices and Coping Strategies: Household-level Evidence from Afghanistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 282-299, August.
    2. Teodosijevic, Slobodanka B., 2003. "Armed conflicts and food security," ESA Working Papers 289088, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    4. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Economy & World Bank, 2010. "Poverty Status in Afghanistan," World Bank Publications - Reports 27827, The World Bank Group.
    5. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    6. Slobodanka B. Teodosijevic, 2003. "Armed Conflicts and Food Security," Working Papers 03-11, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    7. Deaton, A. & Zaidi, S., 1999. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," Papers 192, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    8. D'Souza, Anna & Jolliffe, Dean, 2010. "Rising food prices and coping strategies : household-level evidence from Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5466, The World Bank.
    9. Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14101, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer/Household Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; International Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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