[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/nddaae/338529.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implications of the Russian Invasion on the Logistical Competition for Corn Shipments from the United States and Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Wilson, William W.
  • Bullock, David W.
  • Lakkakula, Prithviraj
Abstract
The Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted the grain flows from that region and worldwide. These changes are critical due to the war’s influence on logistical costs, routes and capacities. As a result of the invasion, Ukraine has evolved from having some of the lowest logistical costs in the world to having the highest logistical cost. Logistics are critical for international competitiveness in commodities, and due to the invasion, these functions have been severely affected. Essential features for a logistical competition include internal logistical functions and costs, quality, port capacity and ocean shipping costs, each compounded by seasonal demands. This paper’s purpose is to analyze the effects of the Russian invasion on the logistical functions and the costs for corn exports from Ukraine and its competitors using an optimized Monte Carlo simulation model. The findings indicate that before the invasion, Ukraine had logistical advantages for shipments to the European Union (EU) and was highly competitive in Indonesia and China; the United States had a logistical cost advantage over Ukraine to serve China, South Korea (from the U.S. Gulf) and Japan (from the Pacific Northwest (PNW)). The changes due to the invasion are substantial. Most important is the radical increase in shipping costs from Ukraine, reduced port capacity and export supplies. However, concurrent with the invasion were changes in some critical trade and marketing policies, thus influencing the international competition for corn.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson, William W. & Bullock, David W. & Lakkakula, Prithviraj, 2023. "Implications of the Russian Invasion on the Logistical Competition for Corn Shipments from the United States and Ukraine," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 338529, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nddaae:338529
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.338529
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/338529/files/AAE820%20%282%29.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.338529?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schade, Burkhard & Wiesenthal, Tobias, 2011. "Biofuels: A model based assessment under uncertainty applying the Monte Carlo method," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 92-126, January.
    2. Bullock, David W. & Lakkakula, Prithviraj & Wilson, William W., 2023. "Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Global Food Grain Price Analysis," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2).
    3. Padilla, Samantha & Ufer, Danielle J. & Morgan, Stephen & Link, Noah, 2023. "U.S. Export Competitiveness in Select Crop Markets," USDA Miscellaneous 333553, United States Department of Agriculture.
    4. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hao Xu & Niu Niu & Dongmei Li & Chengjie Wang, 2024. "A Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Food Trade Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2023. "Exploring downside risk dependence across energy markets: Electricity, conventional energy, carbon, and clean energy during episodes of market crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    3. Sebestyén, Tamás & Szabó, Norbert & Braun, Emese & Bedő, Zsolt, 2024. "Lokális reziliencia számítása térbeli általános egyensúlyi modell felhasználásával [Measuring local resilience with a spatial computable general equilibrium model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1222-1253.
    4. Claire Nicolas & Stéphane Tchung-Ming & Emmanuel Hache, 2016. "Energy transition in transportation under cost uncertainty, an assessment based on robust optimization," Working Papers hal-02475943, HAL.
    5. Fitriyanti Mayasari & Rinaldy Dalimi & Widodo Wahyu Purwanto, 2019. "Projection of Biodiesel Production in Indonesia to Achieve National Mandatory Blending in 2025 using System Dynamics Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 421-429.
    6. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie‐Hélène Hubert & Beyza Ural Marchand, 2019. "Food for fuel: The effect of the US biofuel mandate on poverty in India," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), pages 1153-1193, July.
    7. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Tong, Eric, 2024. "Repercussions of the Russia–Ukraine war," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 366-390.
    9. Kyriakarakos, George & Dounis, Anastasios I. & Rozakis, Stelios & Arvanitis, Konstantinos G. & Papadakis, George, 2011. "Polygeneration microgrids: A viable solution in remote areas for supplying power, potable water and hydrogen as transportation fuel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4517-4526.
    10. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Guerrero-Lemus, Ricardo & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Puch, Luis A., 2012. "Costs for conventional and renewable fuels and electricity in the worldwide transport sector: A mean–variance portfolio approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 178-188.
    12. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2014. "On the upsurge of U.S. food prices revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 272-276.
    14. Kong, Fanna & Gao, Zhuoqiong & Oprean-Stan, Camelia, 2023. "Green bond in China: An effective hedge against global supply chain pressure?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Ichim Alexandru-Mihăiță, 2024. "An Empirical Analysis of the European Union's Economy and Politics in the Context of the War in Ukraine," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 482-493.
    16. Marta Anita Karaś & Michał Boda, 2024. "Stabilność i wyniki finansowe banków w krajach Europy graniczących z konfliktem militarnym w Ukrainie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 64-111.
    17. Nobanee, Haitham & Azmi, Wajahat & Chakraborty, Dipanwita & Hamill, Philip Anthony & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa, 2023. "Can we breathe a sigh of relief now? The impact of First Republic Bank takeover by JP Morgan on the US equity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    18. Miljkovic, Dragan & Shaik, Saleem & Braun, Dane, 2012. "Impact of biofuel policies on livestock production in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 817-831.
    19. Han, Xiaojuan & Zhang, Hua & Yu, Xiaoling & Wang, Lina, 2016. "Economic evaluation of grid-connected micro-grid system with photovoltaic and energy storage under different investment and financing models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 103-118.
    20. repec:ags:aaea22:335476 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les, 2024. "Financial market information flows when counteracting rogue states: The indirect effects of targeted sanction packages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 32-62.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; International Development; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nddaae:338529. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dandsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.